Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes
Aim: Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is expected to be vulnerable to climate change. The objectives of this study were to (a) assess the future impact of climate change on cacao in Peru and (b) identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present. Methods: Drawing on 19,700 and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Wiley
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/1850 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13294 |
| _version_ | 1855028766966808576 |
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| author | Ceccarelli, Viviana Fremout, Tobias Zavaleta, Diego Lastra, Sphyros Imán Correa, Sixto Alfredo Arévalo Gardini, Enrique Rodriguez, Carlos Armando Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert Eddy Thomas, Evert |
| author_browse | Arévalo Gardini, Enrique Ceccarelli, Viviana Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert Eddy Fremout, Tobias Imán Correa, Sixto Alfredo Lastra, Sphyros Rodriguez, Carlos Armando Thomas, Evert Zavaleta, Diego |
| author_facet | Ceccarelli, Viviana Fremout, Tobias Zavaleta, Diego Lastra, Sphyros Imán Correa, Sixto Alfredo Arévalo Gardini, Enrique Rodriguez, Carlos Armando Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert Eddy Thomas, Evert |
| author_sort | Ceccarelli, Viviana |
| collection | Repositorio INIA |
| description | Aim: Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is expected to be vulnerable to climate change. The objectives of this study were to (a) assess the future impact of climate change on cacao in Peru and (b) identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present. Methods: Drawing on 19,700 and 1,200 presence points of cultivated and wild cacao, respectively, we modelled their suitability distributions using multiple ensemble models constructed based on both random and target group selection of pseudo-absence points and different resolutions of spatial filtering. To estimate the uncertainty of future predictions, we generated future projections for all the ensemble models. We investigated the potential emergence of novel climates, determined expected changes in ecogeographical zones (zones representative for particular sets of growth conditions) and carried out an outlier analysis based on the environmental variables most relevant for climate change adaptation to identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present. Results: We found that the best modelling approaches differed between cultivated and wild cacao and that the resolution of spatial filtering had a strong impact on future suitability predictions, calling for careful evaluation of the effect of model selection on modelling results. Overall, our models foresee a contraction of suitable area for cultivated cacao while predicting a more positive future for wild cacao in Peru. Ecogeographical zones are expected to change in 8%–16% of the distribution of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified several areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes may be present in Peru. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that tolerant genotypes will be required to facilitate the adaptation of cacao cultivation under climate change. The identified cacao populations will be target of collection missions. |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| id | INIA1850 |
| institution | Institucional Nacional de Innovación Agraria |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INIA18502022-11-21T19:57:45Z Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes Ceccarelli, Viviana Fremout, Tobias Zavaleta, Diego Lastra, Sphyros Imán Correa, Sixto Alfredo Arévalo Gardini, Enrique Rodriguez, Carlos Armando Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert Eddy Thomas, Evert Breeding for climate change adaptation Cacao genotypes Emsemble modelling Habitat suitability modelling https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.01 Aim: Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is expected to be vulnerable to climate change. The objectives of this study were to (a) assess the future impact of climate change on cacao in Peru and (b) identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present. Methods: Drawing on 19,700 and 1,200 presence points of cultivated and wild cacao, respectively, we modelled their suitability distributions using multiple ensemble models constructed based on both random and target group selection of pseudo-absence points and different resolutions of spatial filtering. To estimate the uncertainty of future predictions, we generated future projections for all the ensemble models. We investigated the potential emergence of novel climates, determined expected changes in ecogeographical zones (zones representative for particular sets of growth conditions) and carried out an outlier analysis based on the environmental variables most relevant for climate change adaptation to identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present. Results: We found that the best modelling approaches differed between cultivated and wild cacao and that the resolution of spatial filtering had a strong impact on future suitability predictions, calling for careful evaluation of the effect of model selection on modelling results. Overall, our models foresee a contraction of suitable area for cultivated cacao while predicting a more positive future for wild cacao in Peru. Ecogeographical zones are expected to change in 8%–16% of the distribution of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified several areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes may be present in Peru. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that tolerant genotypes will be required to facilitate the adaptation of cacao cultivation under climate change. The identified cacao populations will be target of collection missions. Abstract. 1. Introduction. 2. Methods. 3. Results. 4. Discussion. 5. Conclusions and future prospects. References 2022-09-05T16:57:11Z 2022-09-05T16:57:11Z 2021-05-21 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Ceccarelli V, Fremout T, Zavaleta D, et al. Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes. Divers Distrib. 2021;27:1462–1476. doi: 10.1111/ddi.13294 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/1850 Diversity and Distributions https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13294 eng https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13294 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf application/pdf Perú Wiley Estados Unidos Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria Repositorio Institucional - INIA |
| spellingShingle | Breeding for climate change adaptation Cacao genotypes Emsemble modelling Habitat suitability modelling https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.01 Ceccarelli, Viviana Fremout, Tobias Zavaleta, Diego Lastra, Sphyros Imán Correa, Sixto Alfredo Arévalo Gardini, Enrique Rodriguez, Carlos Armando Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert Eddy Thomas, Evert Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title | Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title_full | Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title_short | Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes |
| title_sort | climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in peru and the search of climate change tolerant genotypes |
| topic | Breeding for climate change adaptation Cacao genotypes Emsemble modelling Habitat suitability modelling https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.01 |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/1850 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13294 |
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