Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union
Societal Impact Statement Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we tested surveillance and...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/9035 https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ppp3.10643 |
| _version_ | 1855492611300655104 |
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| author | Ellis, John Lázaro, Elena Duarte, Beatriz Magalhaes, Tomás Duarte, Amílcar Benhadi-Marín, Jacinto Pereira, José A. Vicent, Antonio Parnell, Stephen Cunniffe, Nik J. |
| author_browse | Benhadi-Marín, Jacinto Cunniffe, Nik J. Duarte, Amílcar Duarte, Beatriz Ellis, John Lázaro, Elena Magalhaes, Tomás Parnell, Stephen Pereira, José A. Vicent, Antonio |
| author_facet | Ellis, John Lázaro, Elena Duarte, Beatriz Magalhaes, Tomás Duarte, Amílcar Benhadi-Marín, Jacinto Pereira, José A. Vicent, Antonio Parnell, Stephen Cunniffe, Nik J. |
| author_sort | Ellis, John |
| collection | ReDivia |
| description | Societal Impact Statement
Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted
Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin
remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we
tested surveillance and control strategies before any future HLB entry in the EU. We
found while some citrus production might be maintained by roguing, this requires
extensive surveillance and significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing
of psyllids (which spread the pathogen) for bacterial DNA. Our work highlights the
key importance of early detection (including asymptomatic infection) and vector control
for HLB management.
Summary
• Huánglóngbìng (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of citrus
worldwide. While citrus production in the United States and Brazil have been
affected for decades, HLB has not been reported in the European Union (EU).
However, a HLB vector, the African citrus psyllid, is already in Portugal and
Spain. In 2023, the major vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, was first reported in
Cyprus.
• We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting for heterogeneous
citrus cultivation and vector dispersal, as well as climate and disease management.
We use our model to predict HLB dynamics for an epidemic vectored by
the African citrus psyllid in high-density citrus areas in Spain, assessing detection
and control strategies.
• Without disease management, we predict large areas infected within 10–20 years.
Even with significant visual surveillance, any epidemic will be widespread on first
detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection and
roguing following first detection, particularly if coupled with intensive insecticide
use, could sustain some citriculture for a decade or more, albeit with reduced production. However, effective control may require chemical application rates
and/or active substances no longer authorised in the EU. Strategies targeting
asymptomatic infection will be more successful. Detection of bacteriliferous
vectors—sometimes possible long before plants show symptoms—could reduce
lags before disease management commences. If detection of HLB-positive vectors
were followed by intensive insecticide sprays, this may greatly improve outcomes.
• Our work highlights modelling as a key component of developing epidemiological
preparedness for a pathogen invasion that is, at least somewhat, predictable in
advance. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | ReDivia9035 |
| institution | Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Agrarias (IVIA) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ReDivia90352025-04-25T14:49:50Z Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union Ellis, John Lázaro, Elena Duarte, Beatriz Magalhaes, Tomás Duarte, Amílcar Benhadi-Marín, Jacinto Pereira, José A. Vicent, Antonio Parnell, Stephen Cunniffe, Nik J. Candidatus Liberibacter Citrus greening Diaphorina citri Kuwayama Early detection surveillance HLB (huánglóngbing) Trioza erytreae Del Guercio (1918) H20 Plant diseases Psyllids Stochastic models Trioza Societal Impact Statement Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we tested surveillance and control strategies before any future HLB entry in the EU. We found while some citrus production might be maintained by roguing, this requires extensive surveillance and significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing of psyllids (which spread the pathogen) for bacterial DNA. Our work highlights the key importance of early detection (including asymptomatic infection) and vector control for HLB management. Summary • Huánglóngbìng (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of citrus worldwide. While citrus production in the United States and Brazil have been affected for decades, HLB has not been reported in the European Union (EU). However, a HLB vector, the African citrus psyllid, is already in Portugal and Spain. In 2023, the major vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, was first reported in Cyprus. • We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting for heterogeneous citrus cultivation and vector dispersal, as well as climate and disease management. We use our model to predict HLB dynamics for an epidemic vectored by the African citrus psyllid in high-density citrus areas in Spain, assessing detection and control strategies. • Without disease management, we predict large areas infected within 10–20 years. Even with significant visual surveillance, any epidemic will be widespread on first detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection and roguing following first detection, particularly if coupled with intensive insecticide use, could sustain some citriculture for a decade or more, albeit with reduced production. However, effective control may require chemical application rates and/or active substances no longer authorised in the EU. Strategies targeting asymptomatic infection will be more successful. Detection of bacteriliferous vectors—sometimes possible long before plants show symptoms—could reduce lags before disease management commences. If detection of HLB-positive vectors were followed by intensive insecticide sprays, this may greatly improve outcomes. • Our work highlights modelling as a key component of developing epidemiological preparedness for a pathogen invasion that is, at least somewhat, predictable in advance. 2025-03-03T08:36:52Z 2025-03-03T08:36:52Z 2025 article publishedVersion Ellis, J., Lázaro, E., Duarte, B., Magalhães, T., Duarte, A., Benhadi‐Marín, J., ... & Cunniffe, N. J. (2025). Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union. Plants, People, Planet. 2572-2611 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/9035 10.1002/ppp3.10643 https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ppp3.10643 en The work was supported by Pre-HLB (Preventing HLB epidemics for ensuring citrus survival in Europe), grant 817526 from the European Union Horizon 2020 program. Additionally, T.M. acknowledges support from FCT for 2020.07798.BD (doi: 10.54499/2020.07798.BD), and T. M and A.D. jointly acknowledge support from MED for UIDB/05183/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDB/05183/2020) and from UIDP/05183/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDP/05183/2020) and from CHANGE for LA/P/0121/2020 (doi: 10.54499/LA/P/0121/ 2020). J.B.-M. and J.A.P. also jointly additionally acknowledge support from FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC) for CIMO, UIDB/00690/2020 (doi: 10. 54499/UIDB/00690/2020), UIDP/00690/2020 (doi: 10.54499/ UIDP/00690/2020) and SusTEC, LA/P/0007/2020 (doi: 10.54499/ LA/P/0007/2020). info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817526/EU/Preventing HLB epidemics for ensuring citrus survival in Europe/PRE-HLB Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ openAccess Wiley electronico |
| spellingShingle | Candidatus Liberibacter Citrus greening Diaphorina citri Kuwayama Early detection surveillance HLB (huánglóngbing) Trioza erytreae Del Guercio (1918) H20 Plant diseases Psyllids Stochastic models Trioza Ellis, John Lázaro, Elena Duarte, Beatriz Magalhaes, Tomás Duarte, Amílcar Benhadi-Marín, Jacinto Pereira, José A. Vicent, Antonio Parnell, Stephen Cunniffe, Nik J. Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title | Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title_full | Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title_fullStr | Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title_full_unstemmed | Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title_short | Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union |
| title_sort | developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion modelling citrus huanglongbing in the european union |
| topic | Candidatus Liberibacter Citrus greening Diaphorina citri Kuwayama Early detection surveillance HLB (huánglóngbing) Trioza erytreae Del Guercio (1918) H20 Plant diseases Psyllids Stochastic models Trioza |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/9035 https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ppp3.10643 |
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