Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union
Societal Impact Statement Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we tested surveillance and...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/9035 https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ppp3.10643 |
| Sumario: | Societal Impact Statement
Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted
Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin
remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we
tested surveillance and control strategies before any future HLB entry in the EU. We
found while some citrus production might be maintained by roguing, this requires
extensive surveillance and significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing
of psyllids (which spread the pathogen) for bacterial DNA. Our work highlights the
key importance of early detection (including asymptomatic infection) and vector control
for HLB management.
Summary
• Huánglóngbìng (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of citrus
worldwide. While citrus production in the United States and Brazil have been
affected for decades, HLB has not been reported in the European Union (EU).
However, a HLB vector, the African citrus psyllid, is already in Portugal and
Spain. In 2023, the major vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, was first reported in
Cyprus.
• We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting for heterogeneous
citrus cultivation and vector dispersal, as well as climate and disease management.
We use our model to predict HLB dynamics for an epidemic vectored by
the African citrus psyllid in high-density citrus areas in Spain, assessing detection
and control strategies.
• Without disease management, we predict large areas infected within 10–20 years.
Even with significant visual surveillance, any epidemic will be widespread on first
detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection and
roguing following first detection, particularly if coupled with intensive insecticide
use, could sustain some citriculture for a decade or more, albeit with reduced production. However, effective control may require chemical application rates
and/or active substances no longer authorised in the EU. Strategies targeting
asymptomatic infection will be more successful. Detection of bacteriliferous
vectors—sometimes possible long before plants show symptoms—could reduce
lags before disease management commences. If detection of HLB-positive vectors
were followed by intensive insecticide sprays, this may greatly improve outcomes.
• Our work highlights modelling as a key component of developing epidemiological
preparedness for a pathogen invasion that is, at least somewhat, predictable in
advance. |
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