Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Artículo |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Academy of Sciences of The United States of America
2020
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6373 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/1912206117 |
| _version_ | 1855492071871217664 |
|---|---|
| author | Schneider, Kevin Van der Werf, Wopke Cendoya, Martina Mourits, Monique Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, Alfons |
| author_browse | Cendoya, Martina Mourits, Monique Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Oude Lansink, Alfons Schneider, Kevin Van der Werf, Wopke Vicent, Antonio |
| author_facet | Schneider, Kevin Van der Werf, Wopke Cendoya, Martina Mourits, Monique Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, Alfons |
| author_sort | Schneider, Kevin |
| collection | ReDivia |
| description | Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause
massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium
was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy),
causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future
spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and
radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model
is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone
profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for
Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around
95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability
modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold,
95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the
national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy,
Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered
rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact
over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the
economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after
orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible,
the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending
on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and
1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease
spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis
stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar
resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures,
including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing
host plants. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | ReDivia6373 |
| institution | Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Agrarias (IVIA) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | Academy of Sciences of The United States of America |
| publisherStr | Academy of Sciences of The United States of America |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ReDivia63732025-04-25T14:46:54Z Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives Schneider, Kevin Van der Werf, Wopke Cendoya, Martina Mourits, Monique Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, Alfons Species distribution models Radial range expansion H20 Plant diseases Simulation models Perennials Olea europaea Xylella fastidiosa Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants. 2020-04-14T15:56:36Z 2020-04-14T15:56:36Z 2020 publishedVersion Schneider, K., Van der Werf, W., Cendoya, M., Mourits, M., Navas-Cortés, J. A., Vicent, A., & Lansink, A. O. (2020). Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(17), 9250-9259. 1091-6490 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6373 10.1073/pnas.1912206117 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/1912206117 en_US Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ Academy of Sciences of The United States of America electronico |
| spellingShingle | Species distribution models Radial range expansion H20 Plant diseases Simulation models Perennials Olea europaea Xylella fastidiosa Schneider, Kevin Van der Werf, Wopke Cendoya, Martina Mourits, Monique Navas-Cortés, Juan A. Vicent, Antonio Oude Lansink, Alfons Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title | Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title_full | Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title_short | Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives |
| title_sort | impact of xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in european olives |
| topic | Species distribution models Radial range expansion H20 Plant diseases Simulation models Perennials Olea europaea Xylella fastidiosa |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6373 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/1912206117 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT schneiderkevin impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT vanderwerfwopke impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT cendoyamartina impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT mouritsmonique impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT navascortesjuana impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT vicentantonio impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives AT oudelansinkalfons impactofxylellafastidiosasubspeciespaucaineuropeanolives |