Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

Coffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee (Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, in...

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Autores principales: Läderach, Peter R.D., Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando, Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo, Zelaya, Carlos, Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac, Jarvis, Andy
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77563
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author Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo
Zelaya, Carlos
Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac
Jarvis, Andy
author_browse Jarvis, Andy
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac
Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Zelaya, Carlos
author_facet Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo
Zelaya, Carlos
Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac
Jarvis, Andy
author_sort Läderach, Peter R.D.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Coffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee (Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, increased pest and disease pressure and farmers’ livelihoods. The objectives of this paper are (i) to quantify the impact of progressive climate change to grow coffee and to produce high quality coffee in Nicaragua and (ii) to develop an adaptation framework across time and space to guide adaptation planning. We used coffee location and cup quality data from Nicaragua in combination with the Maxent and CaNaSTA crop suitability models, the WorldClim historical data and the CMIP3 global circulation models to predict the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability and quality. We distinguished four different impact scenarios: Very high (coffee disappears), high (large negative changes), medium (little negative changes) and increase (positive changes) in climate suitability. During the Nicaraguan coffee roundtable, most promising adaptation strategies were identified, which we then used to develop a two-dimensional adaptation framework for coffee in time and space. Our analysis indicates that incremental adaptation may occur over short-term horizons at lower altitudes, whereas the same areas may undergo transformative adaptation in the longer term. At higher elevations incremental adaptation may be needed in the long term. The same principle and framework is applicable across coffee growing regions around the world.
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spelling CGSpace775632025-03-13T09:44:00Z Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time Läderach, Peter R.D. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo Zelaya, Carlos Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Jarvis, Andy climate change coffee adaptation simulation models café cambio climático adaptación modelos de simulación Coffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee (Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, increased pest and disease pressure and farmers’ livelihoods. The objectives of this paper are (i) to quantify the impact of progressive climate change to grow coffee and to produce high quality coffee in Nicaragua and (ii) to develop an adaptation framework across time and space to guide adaptation planning. We used coffee location and cup quality data from Nicaragua in combination with the Maxent and CaNaSTA crop suitability models, the WorldClim historical data and the CMIP3 global circulation models to predict the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability and quality. We distinguished four different impact scenarios: Very high (coffee disappears), high (large negative changes), medium (little negative changes) and increase (positive changes) in climate suitability. During the Nicaraguan coffee roundtable, most promising adaptation strategies were identified, which we then used to develop a two-dimensional adaptation framework for coffee in time and space. Our analysis indicates that incremental adaptation may occur over short-term horizons at lower altitudes, whereas the same areas may undergo transformative adaptation in the longer term. At higher elevations incremental adaptation may be needed in the long term. The same principle and framework is applicable across coffee growing regions around the world. 2017-03 2016-11-03T19:57:26Z 2016-11-03T19:57:26Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77563 en Open Access Springer Läderach, Peter; Ramirez–Villegas, Julian; Navarro-Racines, Carlos; Zelaya, Carlos; Martinez–Valle, Armando; Jarvis, Andy. 2016. Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time . Climate Change 1-16 p.
spellingShingle climate change
coffee
adaptation
simulation models
café
cambio climático
adaptación
modelos de simulación
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Navarro Racines, Carlos Eduardo
Zelaya, Carlos
Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac
Jarvis, Andy
Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title_full Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title_fullStr Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title_full_unstemmed Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title_short Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
title_sort climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time
topic climate change
coffee
adaptation
simulation models
café
cambio climático
adaptación
modelos de simulación
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77563
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AT zelayacarlos climatechangeadaptationofcoffeeproductioninspaceandtime
AT martinezvallearmandoisaac climatechangeadaptationofcoffeeproductioninspaceandtime
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