Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel
AGRHYMET RCC-AOS, through the AICCRA project, has developed objective seasonal forecasting systems, combining advanced statistics, dynamical models, and artificial intelligence algorithms improving accuracy and reliability of climate forecasts across the region. Forecast accuracy assessment of the n...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | Inglés |
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2025
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179567 |
| _version_ | 1855529221718278144 |
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| author | Tanimoune, Laouali I Nimon, Pouwereou Ali, Abdou Houngnibo, Mandela C M Alhassane, Agali Mohamed, Hamatan Soumana, Djibo Assoumana, Boubacar Toukal Segnon, Alcade Christel Zougmore, Robert Bellarmin |
| author_browse | Alhassane, Agali Ali, Abdou Assoumana, Boubacar Toukal Houngnibo, Mandela C M Mohamed, Hamatan Nimon, Pouwereou Segnon, Alcade Christel Soumana, Djibo Tanimoune, Laouali I Zougmore, Robert Bellarmin |
| author_facet | Tanimoune, Laouali I Nimon, Pouwereou Ali, Abdou Houngnibo, Mandela C M Alhassane, Agali Mohamed, Hamatan Soumana, Djibo Assoumana, Boubacar Toukal Segnon, Alcade Christel Zougmore, Robert Bellarmin |
| author_sort | Tanimoune, Laouali I |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | AGRHYMET RCC-AOS, through the AICCRA project, has developed objective seasonal forecasting systems, combining advanced statistics, dynamical models, and artificial intelligence algorithms improving accuracy and reliability of climate forecasts across the region. Forecast accuracy assessment of the new objective seasonal forecasting approach and the existing consensual approach showed that the new objective seasonal forecasting approach significantly outperforms the consensual approach, achieving an average accuracy of 66% vs. 46% for the consensual approach. The highest skill is observed in predicting above-normal rainfall (94% vs 71% for the consensual approach) confirming the robustness of the objective system in identifying regions prone to flooding and heavy rainfall events. Similarly, performance for below-normal conditions (53% vs 21% for the consensual approach) demonstrates a good capacity to detect potential dry spells and drought risks. As the objective seasonal forecasting approach has been officially endorsed by the directors of NMHSs of the 17 countries in West Africa and the Sahel, transitioning from traditional consensual seasonal forecasts, this new approach will be used during the future Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in the region. There is a need to continue improving the WASS2S tool for a more holistic forecasting and strengthening the capacities of more NMHSs staff to ensure the sustainability and regional ownership of objective forecasts. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace179567 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1795672026-01-09T02:09:08Z Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel Tanimoune, Laouali I Nimon, Pouwereou Ali, Abdou Houngnibo, Mandela C M Alhassane, Agali Mohamed, Hamatan Soumana, Djibo Assoumana, Boubacar Toukal Segnon, Alcade Christel Zougmore, Robert Bellarmin climate change adaptation resilience climate services-climate information services AGRHYMET RCC-AOS, through the AICCRA project, has developed objective seasonal forecasting systems, combining advanced statistics, dynamical models, and artificial intelligence algorithms improving accuracy and reliability of climate forecasts across the region. Forecast accuracy assessment of the new objective seasonal forecasting approach and the existing consensual approach showed that the new objective seasonal forecasting approach significantly outperforms the consensual approach, achieving an average accuracy of 66% vs. 46% for the consensual approach. The highest skill is observed in predicting above-normal rainfall (94% vs 71% for the consensual approach) confirming the robustness of the objective system in identifying regions prone to flooding and heavy rainfall events. Similarly, performance for below-normal conditions (53% vs 21% for the consensual approach) demonstrates a good capacity to detect potential dry spells and drought risks. As the objective seasonal forecasting approach has been officially endorsed by the directors of NMHSs of the 17 countries in West Africa and the Sahel, transitioning from traditional consensual seasonal forecasts, this new approach will be used during the future Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in the region. There is a need to continue improving the WASS2S tool for a more holistic forecasting and strengthening the capacities of more NMHSs staff to ensure the sustainability and regional ownership of objective forecasts. 2025-11 2026-01-08T22:51:40Z 2026-01-08T22:51:40Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179567 en Open Access application/pdf Tanimoune, L.I., Nimon, P., Ali, A., Houngnibo, M.C.M., Alhassane, A., Mohamed, H., Soumana, D., Assoumana, B.T., Segnon, A.C., & Zougmoré, R.B. 2025. Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel. AICCRA Brief. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA). |
| spellingShingle | climate change adaptation resilience climate services-climate information services Tanimoune, Laouali I Nimon, Pouwereou Ali, Abdou Houngnibo, Mandela C M Alhassane, Agali Mohamed, Hamatan Soumana, Djibo Assoumana, Boubacar Toukal Segnon, Alcade Christel Zougmore, Robert Bellarmin Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title | Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title_full | Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title_fullStr | Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title_short | Comparative performance of the objective vs. consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in West Africa and the Sahel |
| title_sort | comparative performance of the objective vs consensual seasonal climate forecasting approaches in west africa and the sahel |
| topic | climate change adaptation resilience climate services-climate information services |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179567 |
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