| Sumario: | Recurrent droughts in Zambia continue to undermine agricultural production, household incomes, and food security, while increasing dependence on costly humanitarian responses. This technical report applies a cost-benefit analysis to assess the economic viability of selected drought risk reduction anticipatory actions in the Western Province of Zambia, a region highly exposed to rainfall variability and recurrent drought events. The analysis evaluates three intervention options: farmer-led small-scale irrigation, adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties, and a combined strategy integrating irrigation, where feasible, with drought-tolerant crops on land that is non-irrigable.
Using a 15-year appraisal horizon, the study estimates benefit-cost ratios, net present values, and avoided production losses, alongside potential reductions in emergency food assistance requirements and related response expenditures. The results indicate that all three anticipatory actions are economically viable, with benefit-cost ratios exceeding one across districts and discount rate scenarios. However, the combined strategy consistently delivers the strongest economic performance, generating the highest returns, the largest avoided production losses, and the greatest potential reductions in anticipated relief needs. Small-scale irrigation alone performs better than drought-tolerant crops alone, particularly in districts with higher irrigation potential, more reliable water access, and greater scope for yield stabilization.
The findings provide strong evidence that investing in anticipatory agricultural measures before drought shocks occur is more cost effective than reliance on post-shock humanitarian response. Beyond short-term economic gains, these interventions enhance long-term resilience by stabilizing production, protecting farmer livelihoods, improving food availability, and strengthening adaptive capacity under increasing climate variability. The report supports the systematic integration of anticipatory actions into national drought risk management, agricultural investment planning, and climate resilience strategies in Zambia and similar drought-prone contexts.
|
|---|