| Sumario: | India’s agri-food system is poised for a significant transformation driven by its potential for rapid economic growth and increasing globalization. As these forces reshape consumer preferences, there is a growing demand for nutrition-rich foods. This shift presents a unique opportunity for India to reimagine its agri-food system over the next quarter-century, aligning it with evolving consumer needs while addressing persistent nutritional challenges.
However, this transformation of the food system faces significant challenges related to the quantitative and qualitative degradation of land, labor, and energy resources. As India moves forward, it will need to balance the demands of a changing food landscape with the imperative for resource conservation and sustainable agricultural practices. This balancing act is crucial in ensuring food security, improving nutritional outcomes, and fostering economic growth within the constraints of available resources.
Planning for a sustainable, equitable and efficient agri-food system should be based on a comprehensive understanding of the future food demand and supply, as well as their responses to factors such as investments in infrastructure, agricultural research, and climate mitigation and adaptation. This study projects food demand and supply by 2050, under three distinct economic scenarios, and their potential impacts on the agri-food system. These scenarios are: progressive, aggressive, and retreating growth scenarios. The progressive and aggressive growth scenarios paint optimistic pictures, with increased innovation, higher female labor participation, and successful adaptation to climate change driving economic expansion. In contrast, the regressive scenario highlights the potential risks and challenges that could hinder India’s progress towards achieving status of a developed nation. The figure below displays the projected demand and supply for key food items/groups by 2050, as projected under the aggressive growth scenario. Considering these diverse outcomes, policymakers and stakeholders can better prepare for a range of possibilities and develop strategies to mitigate potential risks while capitalizing on opportunities for sustainable growth in the agricultural sector.
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