| Sumario: | • The Philippines imposed a 60-day rice import suspension (Sept–Oct 2025) through Executive Order (EO) No. 93 to protect local farmers by allowing the domestic market to absorb the supply from the ongoing harvest season, after unmilled rice prices collapsed to ₱16– ₱18/kg by July 2025 while retail milled rice stayed above ₱40/kg. What will be the effects internally and externally?
• The halt temporarily removed one of the world’s biggest buyers from the market, adding downward pressure on already weak global rice prices. We expect global prices will drop further with this move.
• The import suspension underscores Philippines’s push for greater rice self-sufficiency, forcing the market to prioritize local harvest and stabilize rice prices, but is this only an import pause?
• Markets suggest the ban may extend beyond November 1, and a return to a 35% tariff is under discussion - adding risk for those waiting to re-import after the ban.
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