Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions

Climate change is a growing driver of insecurity, displacement, and vulnerability in fragile and conflict-affected regions (Bellemare, 2015; Collier, 2008; Freeman, 2017; Schlenker & Lobell, 2010), disproportionately affecting poor, agriculture-dependent communities, displaced populations, and their...

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Autores principales: Mastrorillo, Marina, Villa, Victor, Belli, Anna, Pacillo, Grazia
Formato: Brief
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175770
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author Mastrorillo, Marina
Villa, Victor
Belli, Anna
Pacillo, Grazia
author_browse Belli, Anna
Mastrorillo, Marina
Pacillo, Grazia
Villa, Victor
author_facet Mastrorillo, Marina
Villa, Victor
Belli, Anna
Pacillo, Grazia
author_sort Mastrorillo, Marina
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Climate change is a growing driver of insecurity, displacement, and vulnerability in fragile and conflict-affected regions (Bellemare, 2015; Collier, 2008; Freeman, 2017; Schlenker & Lobell, 2010), disproportionately affecting poor, agriculture-dependent communities, displaced populations, and their hosts (Läderach et al., 2021; UNHCR, 2024). By 2040, the number of countries facing extreme climate-related hazards is projected to rise from three to 65, most of which host displaced people (Craparo et al., forthcoming). This policy brief summarizes econometric findings from six econometric studies in Nigeria, Kenya, Jordan, Mali, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa. Using datasets such as DHS, IOM’s DTM, and UNHCR surveys, combined with climate, price, and conflict data, the studies examine links between climate variability, mobility, malnutrition, and resilience. Methods include Structural Equation Modeling, Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching, and spatial techniques. The findings highlight the urgency of integrated, evidence-based responses to climate risks in fragile settings.
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spelling CGSpace1757702025-11-05T12:28:59Z Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions Mastrorillo, Marina Villa, Victor Belli, Anna Pacillo, Grazia food security conflict sensitivity refugees climate action displaced persons Climate change is a growing driver of insecurity, displacement, and vulnerability in fragile and conflict-affected regions (Bellemare, 2015; Collier, 2008; Freeman, 2017; Schlenker & Lobell, 2010), disproportionately affecting poor, agriculture-dependent communities, displaced populations, and their hosts (Läderach et al., 2021; UNHCR, 2024). By 2040, the number of countries facing extreme climate-related hazards is projected to rise from three to 65, most of which host displaced people (Craparo et al., forthcoming). This policy brief summarizes econometric findings from six econometric studies in Nigeria, Kenya, Jordan, Mali, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa. Using datasets such as DHS, IOM’s DTM, and UNHCR surveys, combined with climate, price, and conflict data, the studies examine links between climate variability, mobility, malnutrition, and resilience. Methods include Structural Equation Modeling, Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching, and spatial techniques. The findings highlight the urgency of integrated, evidence-based responses to climate risks in fragile settings. 2025-07-01 2025-07-23T10:03:00Z 2025-07-23T10:03:00Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175770 en Open Access application/pdf Mastrorillo, M.; Villa, V.; Belli, A.; Pacillo, G. (2025) Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions. 10 p.
spellingShingle food security
conflict sensitivity
refugees
climate action
displaced persons
Mastrorillo, Marina
Villa, Victor
Belli, Anna
Pacillo, Grazia
Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title_full Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title_fullStr Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title_full_unstemmed Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title_short Climate change, mobility and security: Insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
title_sort climate change mobility and security insights from econometric analyses across fragile regions
topic food security
conflict sensitivity
refugees
climate action
displaced persons
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175770
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