Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis
Food systems must transform in pursuit of health, sustainability, and justice goals. The scale and distribution of these profound changes across different food sectors is underexplored. We examine possible impacts on food sectors, contextualised with historical data, of a global food systems transfo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Conference Paper |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Purdue University
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169873 |
| _version_ | 1855518381987332096 |
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| author | Gibson, Matthew Sundiang, Marina Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Oliveira, Thais Diniz Lotze-Campen, Hermann Beier, Felicitas Popp, Alex van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans de Lange, Thijs van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Chepeliev, Maksym Van Vuuren, Detlef Stehfest, Elke Doelman, Jonathan Havlik, Petr Kozicka, Marta Wiebe, Keith D. Mishra, Abhijeet Hasegawa, Tomoko Fujimori, Shinichiro Springmann, Marco Sands, Ron Hristov, Jordan Dominguez, Igancio P. Herrero, Mario |
| author_browse | Beier, Felicitas Chepeliev, Maksym Doelman, Jonathan Dominguez, Igancio P. Fujimori, Shinichiro Gibson, Matthew Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Herrero, Mario Hristov, Jordan Kozicka, Marta Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Mishra, Abhijeet Oliveira, Thais Diniz Popp, Alex Sands, Ron Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sundiang, Marina Van Vuuren, Detlef Wiebe, Keith D. de Lange, Thijs van Meijl, Hans van Zeist, Willem-Jan van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| author_facet | Gibson, Matthew Sundiang, Marina Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Oliveira, Thais Diniz Lotze-Campen, Hermann Beier, Felicitas Popp, Alex van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans de Lange, Thijs van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Chepeliev, Maksym Van Vuuren, Detlef Stehfest, Elke Doelman, Jonathan Havlik, Petr Kozicka, Marta Wiebe, Keith D. Mishra, Abhijeet Hasegawa, Tomoko Fujimori, Shinichiro Springmann, Marco Sands, Ron Hristov, Jordan Dominguez, Igancio P. Herrero, Mario |
| author_sort | Gibson, Matthew |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Food systems must transform in pursuit of health, sustainability, and justice goals. The scale and distribution of these profound changes across different food sectors is underexplored. We examine possible impacts on food sectors, contextualised with historical data, of a global food systems transformation by 2050. We do this through modelling a transformation scenario composed of dietary change, productivity growth, and reduction of food loss and waste using a multi-model ensemble of 8 global economic models. Preliminary results show substantial food sector restructuring, including a decline in the economic value of agricultural production (-$1.4tn) by 2050 under a transformation scenario versus current trends. Within this, the value of livestock production collapses (-$1tn) with declines also in cereal and sugar crop values of $800bn, partially offset by increases in the value of vegetable, fruit, and nut production ($700bn). Preliminary results also show changes to growth rates of agricultural land expansion from 0.56%/year on average for grazing land over the last 250 years to -0.87%/year from 2020 to 2050 in a food systems transformation scenario, compared to 0.12%/year under business-as-usual trends. The restructuring of global agriculture and food systems suggests a critical role for food policy to both catalyse such a transformation, as well as navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts. |
| format | Conference Paper |
| id | CGSpace169873 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Purdue University |
| publisherStr | Purdue University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1698732025-12-08T09:54:28Z Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis Gibson, Matthew Sundiang, Marina Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Oliveira, Thais Diniz Lotze-Campen, Hermann Beier, Felicitas Popp, Alex van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans de Lange, Thijs van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Chepeliev, Maksym Van Vuuren, Detlef Stehfest, Elke Doelman, Jonathan Havlik, Petr Kozicka, Marta Wiebe, Keith D. Mishra, Abhijeet Hasegawa, Tomoko Fujimori, Shinichiro Springmann, Marco Sands, Ron Hristov, Jordan Dominguez, Igancio P. Herrero, Mario models food systems econometric models history Food systems must transform in pursuit of health, sustainability, and justice goals. The scale and distribution of these profound changes across different food sectors is underexplored. We examine possible impacts on food sectors, contextualised with historical data, of a global food systems transformation by 2050. We do this through modelling a transformation scenario composed of dietary change, productivity growth, and reduction of food loss and waste using a multi-model ensemble of 8 global economic models. Preliminary results show substantial food sector restructuring, including a decline in the economic value of agricultural production (-$1.4tn) by 2050 under a transformation scenario versus current trends. Within this, the value of livestock production collapses (-$1tn) with declines also in cereal and sugar crop values of $800bn, partially offset by increases in the value of vegetable, fruit, and nut production ($700bn). Preliminary results also show changes to growth rates of agricultural land expansion from 0.56%/year on average for grazing land over the last 250 years to -0.87%/year from 2020 to 2050 in a food systems transformation scenario, compared to 0.12%/year under business-as-usual trends. The restructuring of global agriculture and food systems suggests a critical role for food policy to both catalyse such a transformation, as well as navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts. 2024-06-05 2025-01-24T19:53:46Z 2025-01-24T19:53:46Z Conference Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169873 en Open Access Purdue University Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; et al. 2024. Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis. Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis at Fort Collins in Colorado, USA. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7313 |
| spellingShingle | models food systems econometric models history Gibson, Matthew Sundiang, Marina Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Oliveira, Thais Diniz Lotze-Campen, Hermann Beier, Felicitas Popp, Alex van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans de Lange, Thijs van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Chepeliev, Maksym Van Vuuren, Detlef Stehfest, Elke Doelman, Jonathan Havlik, Petr Kozicka, Marta Wiebe, Keith D. Mishra, Abhijeet Hasegawa, Tomoko Fujimori, Shinichiro Springmann, Marco Sands, Ron Hristov, Jordan Dominguez, Igancio P. Herrero, Mario Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title | Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title_full | Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title_fullStr | Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title_short | Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis |
| title_sort | comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations a multi model analysis |
| topic | models food systems econometric models history |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169873 |
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