| Sumario: | Kenya’s forthcoming national flour blending policy mandates the incorporation of at least 10% of traditional high-value crops, such as sorghum and millet, into maize flour. This policy represents a significant shift in the country’s food system, with the potential to drive increased demand for these drought-tolerant crops, promote agricultural diversification, and enhance food security. Taking an agri-food systems perspective, this study provides a critical analysis of the policy, identifying key constraints, knowledge gaps, and leverage points necessary for its successful implementation.
The policy’s successful adoption hinges on a coordinated, multi-sectoral approach across different domains of the agri-food system. Agricultural production systems, market structures, processing capacities, and consumer preferences must be aligned to ensure that the scaling of blended flours is feasible and sustainable. Additionally, the policy has the potential to disrupt the existing maize value chain, with potential winners and losers emerging along the supply chain. This includes smallholder farmers, millers, and traders, who may experience differential adaptation capacities. Some value chain actors, particularly those already engaged in traditional crop production, may benefit from new market opportunities, while others, more dependent on maize, could resist the transition.
The analysis also highlights potential lock-ins, such as entrenched consumer preferences for pure maize flour and the limited infrastructure for processing and distributing traditional grains at scale. Trade-offs may emerge, particularly in terms of balancing short-term economic costs against long-term food system resilience. Therefore, the policy should be implemented with a holistic and cautious approach, ensuring that changes in the agri-food system are coordinated to minimize disruptions and unintended consequences. To achieve the intended benefits of enhanced nutritional quality, food security, and climate resilience, the policy must be supported by investments in farmer capacity-building, improved market access, and public
awareness campaigns to shift consumer preferences. The need for ongoing monitoring and adaptive governance is paramount, ensuring that the policy evolves in response to dynamic feedback from key stakeholders, including farmers, processors, and
consumers.
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