| Sumario: | Recent major local shocks have negatively affected Myanmar’s economy
and its people. Disruptions in the world economy linked to the outbreak
of COVID-19 in early 2020 and the Ukraine war in 2022 and 2023
have led to sharp price increases for petroleum products, wheat, vegetable oils,
and other food products, as well as agricultural inputs, such as chemical fertilizers.
Myanmar’s rice sector has also been adversely affected by increases in
insecurity in rural areas, higher world prices, and reduced cross-border exports
to China.
This chapter explores the implications of these shocks for Myanmar’s rice
exports, domestic rice production, and domestic rice prices. First, we discuss
Myanmar’s rice economy. Next, we describe the equations, database, and
parameters of the partial equilibrium model of Myanmar’s rice economy used
in this analysis. We then present model simulation results, covering the effects
of the income and price shocks in 2022, negative rice production shocks
accompanied by lower rice exports in 2023, and implications of a cessation of
cross-border rice exports to China. The final section summarizes the results,
discusses policy implications, and suggests areas for further work.
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