Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras

We use both biophysical and bioeconomic models to assess the impact of climate change on Honduran agriculture out to 2050. We find that for some key crops, such as maize and sugarcane, yield reductions will likely be larger in Honduras than most of the rest of the world will experience. We argue tha...

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Autores principales: Sanders, Arie, Thomas, Timothy S., Rios, Ana R., Dunston, Shahnila
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146594
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author Sanders, Arie
Thomas, Timothy S.
Rios, Ana R.
Dunston, Shahnila
author_browse Dunston, Shahnila
Rios, Ana R.
Sanders, Arie
Thomas, Timothy S.
author_facet Sanders, Arie
Thomas, Timothy S.
Rios, Ana R.
Dunston, Shahnila
author_sort Sanders, Arie
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description We use both biophysical and bioeconomic models to assess the impact of climate change on Honduran agriculture out to 2050. We find that for some key crops, such as maize and sugarcane, yield reductions will likely be larger in Honduras than most of the rest of the world will experience. We argue that the highest-value crop for Honduras—coffee—may also be the hardest hit by climate change. Maize is projected to have a productivity loss of around 12 percent as a direct result of climate change, but because of increased prices from climate change, yields are projected to only decline by 9 percent, as farmers will invest more in productivity. Beans are projected to lose 10 percent in yield, even after adjusting for the increased investment in productivity by farmers. Livestock may also experience productivity shocks due to climate change, particularly in the southern part of the country. We make recommendations to policy makers to enact appropriate policies to help farmers adapt to the various productivity losses that would otherwise be experienced because of climate change.
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spelling CGSpace1465942025-12-08T10:06:44Z Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras Sanders, Arie Thomas, Timothy S. Rios, Ana R. Dunston, Shahnila models mathematical models agricultural policies sugar cane maize crop yield agriculture climate change adaptation coffee food security poverty crop modelling food insecurity climate change We use both biophysical and bioeconomic models to assess the impact of climate change on Honduran agriculture out to 2050. We find that for some key crops, such as maize and sugarcane, yield reductions will likely be larger in Honduras than most of the rest of the world will experience. We argue that the highest-value crop for Honduras—coffee—may also be the hardest hit by climate change. Maize is projected to have a productivity loss of around 12 percent as a direct result of climate change, but because of increased prices from climate change, yields are projected to only decline by 9 percent, as farmers will invest more in productivity. Beans are projected to lose 10 percent in yield, even after adjusting for the increased investment in productivity by farmers. Livestock may also experience productivity shocks due to climate change, particularly in the southern part of the country. We make recommendations to policy makers to enact appropriate policies to help farmers adapt to the various productivity losses that would otherwise be experienced because of climate change. 2019-04-19 2024-06-21T09:07:40Z 2024-06-21T09:07:40Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146594 en https://cgspace.cgiar.org/items/ae072d18-eb29-421f-abd1-cc279f240d03 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146591 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133209 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133211 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133213 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133214 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Sanders, Arie; Thomas, Timothy S.; Rios, Ana R.; and Dunston, Shahnila. 2019. Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1827. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146594
spellingShingle models
mathematical models
agricultural policies
sugar cane
maize
crop yield
agriculture
climate change adaptation
coffee
food security
poverty
crop modelling
food insecurity
climate change
Sanders, Arie
Thomas, Timothy S.
Rios, Ana R.
Dunston, Shahnila
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title_full Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title_fullStr Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title_full_unstemmed Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title_short Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Honduras
title_sort climate change agriculture and adaptation options for honduras
topic models
mathematical models
agricultural policies
sugar cane
maize
crop yield
agriculture
climate change adaptation
coffee
food security
poverty
crop modelling
food insecurity
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146594
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AT thomastimothys climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsforhonduras
AT riosanar climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsforhonduras
AT dunstonshahnila climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsforhonduras