Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives

Abstract Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global envir...

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Autores principales: Kozicka, Marta, Havlík, Petr, Valin, Hugo, Wollenberg, Eva Karoline, Deppermann, Andre, Leclère, David, Lauri, Pekka, Moses, Rebekah, Boere, Esther, Frank, Stefan, Davis, Chris, Park, Esther, Gurwick, Noel
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131912
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author Kozicka, Marta
Havlík, Petr
Valin, Hugo
Wollenberg, Eva Karoline
Deppermann, Andre
Leclère, David
Lauri, Pekka
Moses, Rebekah
Boere, Esther
Frank, Stefan
Davis, Chris
Park, Esther
Gurwick, Noel
author_browse Boere, Esther
Davis, Chris
Deppermann, Andre
Frank, Stefan
Gurwick, Noel
Havlík, Petr
Kozicka, Marta
Lauri, Pekka
Leclère, David
Moses, Rebekah
Park, Esther
Valin, Hugo
Wollenberg, Eva Karoline
author_facet Kozicka, Marta
Havlík, Petr
Valin, Hugo
Wollenberg, Eva Karoline
Deppermann, Andre
Leclère, David
Lauri, Pekka
Moses, Rebekah
Boere, Esther
Frank, Stefan
Davis, Chris
Park, Esther
Gurwick, Noel
author_sort Kozicka, Marta
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Abstract Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions—the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic.
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spelling CGSpace1319122025-11-11T18:55:20Z Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives Kozicka, Marta Havlík, Petr Valin, Hugo Wollenberg, Eva Karoline Deppermann, Andre Leclère, David Lauri, Pekka Moses, Rebekah Boere, Esther Frank, Stefan Davis, Chris Park, Esther Gurwick, Noel meat meat substitutes-meat analogues climate change climate change mitigation milk by-products-dairy byproducts biodiversity deforestation greenhouse gas emissions Abstract Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions—the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic. 2023-08-13 2023-09-20T08:53:13Z 2023-09-20T08:53:13Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131912 en Open Access application/pdf Springer Kozicka, M.; Havlík, P.; Valin, H.; Wollenberg, E.; Deppermann, A.; Leclère, D.; Lauri, P.; Moses, R.; Boere, E.; Frank, S.; Davis, C.; Park, E.; Gurwick, N. (2023) Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives. Nature Communications 14(1): 5316. ISSN: 2041-1723
spellingShingle meat
meat substitutes-meat analogues
climate change
climate change mitigation
milk by-products-dairy byproducts
biodiversity
deforestation
greenhouse gas emissions
Kozicka, Marta
Havlík, Petr
Valin, Hugo
Wollenberg, Eva Karoline
Deppermann, Andre
Leclère, David
Lauri, Pekka
Moses, Rebekah
Boere, Esther
Frank, Stefan
Davis, Chris
Park, Esther
Gurwick, Noel
Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title_full Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title_fullStr Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title_full_unstemmed Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title_short Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
title_sort feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant based meat and milk alternatives
topic meat
meat substitutes-meat analogues
climate change
climate change mitigation
milk by-products-dairy byproducts
biodiversity
deforestation
greenhouse gas emissions
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131912
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