Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south
This paper conducts a benefit-cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development in the Global South. We extend a recent modelling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Informe técnico |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Copenhagen Consensus Center
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129187 |
| _version_ | 1855520340507099136 |
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| author | Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. |
| author_browse | Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. Wong, Brad |
| author_facet | Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. |
| author_sort | Rosegrant, Mark W. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper conducts a benefit-cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development in the Global South. We extend a recent modelling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D is estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit-cost ratio, BCR, is therefore 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Seen in this light, agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond. |
| format | Informe técnico |
| id | CGSpace129187 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Copenhagen Consensus Center |
| publisherStr | Copenhagen Consensus Center |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1291872025-02-24T06:45:46Z Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. benefit-cost ratio development investments hunger agricultural production food prices income economic surplus sustainable development goals agricultural research This paper conducts a benefit-cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development in the Global South. We extend a recent modelling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D is estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit-cost ratio, BCR, is therefore 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Seen in this light, agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond. 2023-02-11 2023-03-03T20:38:04Z 2023-03-03T20:38:04Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129187 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150391 https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2023.27 Open Access Copenhagen Consensus Center Rosegrant, M.W.; Wong, B.; Sulser, T.B.; Dubosse, N. and Lybbert, T.J. 2023. Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south. Tewksbury, Massachusetts: Copenhagen Consensus Center. https://copenhagenconsensus.com/publication/halftime-sdgs-agricultural-rd |
| spellingShingle | benefit-cost ratio development investments hunger agricultural production food prices income economic surplus sustainable development goals agricultural research Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_full | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_fullStr | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_full_unstemmed | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_short | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_sort | benefit cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| topic | benefit-cost ratio development investments hunger agricultural production food prices income economic surplus sustainable development goals agricultural research |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129187 |
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