Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled hap...

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Main Authors: Guarin, Jose Rafael, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Webber, Heidi, Dueri, Sibylle, Calderini, Daniel F., Reynolds, Matthew P., Molero, Gemma, Miralles, Daniel, García, Guillermo, Slafer, Gustavo A., Giunta, Francesco, Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz, Stella, Tommaso, Mukhtar Ahmed, Alderman, Phillip D., Basso, Bruno, Berger, Andres, Bindi, Marco, Bracho-Mujica, Gennady, Cammarano, Davide, Yi Chen, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres, Elias, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Yujing Gao, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hochman, Zvi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Pullens, Johannes W. M., Rodríguez, Alfredo, Rötter, Reimund P., Ruiz Ramos, Margarita, Semenov, Mikhail A., Senapati, Nimai, Siebert, Stefan, Srivastava, Amit, Stockle, Claudio, Supit, Iwan, Fulu Tao, Thorburn, Peter J., Wang, Enli, Weber, Tobias Karl David, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Chuang Zhao, Zhao, Jin, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu, Asseng, Senthold
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: IOP Publishing 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129183
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author Guarin, Jose Rafael
Martre, Pierre
Ewert, Frank
Webber, Heidi
Dueri, Sibylle
Calderini, Daniel F.
Reynolds, Matthew P.
Molero, Gemma
Miralles, Daniel
García, Guillermo
Slafer, Gustavo A.
Giunta, Francesco
Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz
Stella, Tommaso
Mukhtar Ahmed
Alderman, Phillip D.
Basso, Bruno
Berger, Andres
Bindi, Marco
Bracho-Mujica, Gennady
Cammarano, Davide
Yi Chen
Dumont, Benjamin
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
Fereres, Elias
Ferrise, Roberto
Gaiser, Thomas
Yujing Gao
García Vila, Margarita
Gayler, Sebastian
Hochman, Zvi
Hoogenboom, Gerrit
Hunt, Leslie A.
Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
Nendel, Claas
Olesen, Jørgen E.
Palosuo, Taru
Priesack, Eckart
Pullens, Johannes W. M.
Rodríguez, Alfredo
Rötter, Reimund P.
Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Senapati, Nimai
Siebert, Stefan
Srivastava, Amit
Stockle, Claudio
Supit, Iwan
Fulu Tao
Thorburn, Peter J.
Wang, Enli
Weber, Tobias Karl David
Liujun Xiao
Zhao Zhang
Chuang Zhao
Zhao, Jin
Zhigan Zhao
Yan Zhu
Asseng, Senthold
author_browse Alderman, Phillip D.
Asseng, Senthold
Basso, Bruno
Berger, Andres
Bindi, Marco
Bracho-Mujica, Gennady
Calderini, Daniel F.
Cammarano, Davide
Chuang Zhao
Dueri, Sibylle
Dumont, Benjamin
Ewert, Frank
Fereres, Elias
Ferrise, Roberto
Fulu Tao
Gaiser, Thomas
García Vila, Margarita
García, Guillermo
Gayler, Sebastian
Giunta, Francesco
Guarin, Jose Rafael
Hochman, Zvi
Hoogenboom, Gerrit
Hunt, Leslie A.
Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
Liujun Xiao
Martre, Pierre
Miralles, Daniel
Molero, Gemma
Mukhtar Ahmed
Nendel, Claas
Olesen, Jørgen E.
Palosuo, Taru
Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz
Priesack, Eckart
Pullens, Johannes W. M.
Reynolds, Matthew P.
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
Rodríguez, Alfredo
Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
Rötter, Reimund P.
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Senapati, Nimai
Siebert, Stefan
Slafer, Gustavo A.
Srivastava, Amit
Stella, Tommaso
Stockle, Claudio
Supit, Iwan
Thorburn, Peter J.
Wang, Enli
Webber, Heidi
Weber, Tobias Karl David
Yan Zhu
Yi Chen
Yujing Gao
Zhao Zhang
Zhao, Jin
Zhigan Zhao
author_facet Guarin, Jose Rafael
Martre, Pierre
Ewert, Frank
Webber, Heidi
Dueri, Sibylle
Calderini, Daniel F.
Reynolds, Matthew P.
Molero, Gemma
Miralles, Daniel
García, Guillermo
Slafer, Gustavo A.
Giunta, Francesco
Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz
Stella, Tommaso
Mukhtar Ahmed
Alderman, Phillip D.
Basso, Bruno
Berger, Andres
Bindi, Marco
Bracho-Mujica, Gennady
Cammarano, Davide
Yi Chen
Dumont, Benjamin
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
Fereres, Elias
Ferrise, Roberto
Gaiser, Thomas
Yujing Gao
García Vila, Margarita
Gayler, Sebastian
Hochman, Zvi
Hoogenboom, Gerrit
Hunt, Leslie A.
Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
Nendel, Claas
Olesen, Jørgen E.
Palosuo, Taru
Priesack, Eckart
Pullens, Johannes W. M.
Rodríguez, Alfredo
Rötter, Reimund P.
Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Senapati, Nimai
Siebert, Stefan
Srivastava, Amit
Stockle, Claudio
Supit, Iwan
Fulu Tao
Thorburn, Peter J.
Wang, Enli
Weber, Tobias Karl David
Liujun Xiao
Zhao Zhang
Chuang Zhao
Zhao, Jin
Zhigan Zhao
Yan Zhu
Asseng, Senthold
author_sort Guarin, Jose Rafael
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
format Journal Article
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institution CGIAR Consortium
language Inglés
publishDate 2022
publishDateRange 2022
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publisher IOP Publishing
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spelling CGSpace1291832025-12-08T09:54:28Z Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential Guarin, Jose Rafael Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Webber, Heidi Dueri, Sibylle Calderini, Daniel F. Reynolds, Matthew P. Molero, Gemma Miralles, Daniel García, Guillermo Slafer, Gustavo A. Giunta, Francesco Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz Stella, Tommaso Mukhtar Ahmed Alderman, Phillip D. Basso, Bruno Berger, Andres Bindi, Marco Bracho-Mujica, Gennady Cammarano, Davide Yi Chen Dumont, Benjamin Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Fereres, Elias Ferrise, Roberto Gaiser, Thomas Yujing Gao García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Hochman, Zvi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Hunt, Leslie A. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Nendel, Claas Olesen, Jørgen E. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Pullens, Johannes W. M. Rodríguez, Alfredo Rötter, Reimund P. Ruiz Ramos, Margarita Semenov, Mikhail A. Senapati, Nimai Siebert, Stefan Srivastava, Amit Stockle, Claudio Supit, Iwan Fulu Tao Thorburn, Peter J. Wang, Enli Weber, Tobias Karl David Liujun Xiao Zhao Zhang Chuang Zhao Zhao, Jin Zhigan Zhao Yan Zhu Asseng, Senthold climate change crops food supply photosynthesis crop modelling food security model ensembles wheat yield increases breeding genetics Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges. 2022-12-01 2023-03-03T16:21:21Z 2023-03-03T16:21:21Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129183 en Open Access application/pdf IOP Publishing Guarin, J. R., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Dueri, S., Calderini, D., Reynolds, M., Molero, G., Miralles, D., Garcia, G., Slafer, G., Giunta, F., Pequeno, D. N. L., Stella, T., Ahmed, M., Alderman, P. D., Basso, B., Berger, A. G., Bindi, M., … Asseng, S. (2022). Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. In Environmental Research Letters (Vol. 17, Issue 12, p. 124045). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
spellingShingle climate change
crops
food supply
photosynthesis
crop modelling
food security
model ensembles
wheat
yield increases
breeding
genetics
Guarin, Jose Rafael
Martre, Pierre
Ewert, Frank
Webber, Heidi
Dueri, Sibylle
Calderini, Daniel F.
Reynolds, Matthew P.
Molero, Gemma
Miralles, Daniel
García, Guillermo
Slafer, Gustavo A.
Giunta, Francesco
Pequeno, Diego Notelo Luz
Stella, Tommaso
Mukhtar Ahmed
Alderman, Phillip D.
Basso, Bruno
Berger, Andres
Bindi, Marco
Bracho-Mujica, Gennady
Cammarano, Davide
Yi Chen
Dumont, Benjamin
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
Fereres, Elias
Ferrise, Roberto
Gaiser, Thomas
Yujing Gao
García Vila, Margarita
Gayler, Sebastian
Hochman, Zvi
Hoogenboom, Gerrit
Hunt, Leslie A.
Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
Nendel, Claas
Olesen, Jørgen E.
Palosuo, Taru
Priesack, Eckart
Pullens, Johannes W. M.
Rodríguez, Alfredo
Rötter, Reimund P.
Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Senapati, Nimai
Siebert, Stefan
Srivastava, Amit
Stockle, Claudio
Supit, Iwan
Fulu Tao
Thorburn, Peter J.
Wang, Enli
Weber, Tobias Karl David
Liujun Xiao
Zhao Zhang
Chuang Zhao
Zhao, Jin
Zhigan Zhao
Yan Zhu
Asseng, Senthold
Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title_full Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title_fullStr Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title_full_unstemmed Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title_short Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
title_sort evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
topic climate change
crops
food supply
photosynthesis
crop modelling
food security
model ensembles
wheat
yield increases
breeding
genetics
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129183
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