Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus su...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2019
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/106027 |
| _version_ | 1855517207679729664 |
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| author | Liu, Bing Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Porter, John R. Challinor, Andrew J. Müller, Christoph Ruane, Alex C. Waha, Katharina Thorburn, Peter J. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Ahmed, Mukhtar Balkovič, Juraj Basso, Bruno Biernath, Christian Bindi, Marco Cammarano, Davide Sanctis, Giacomo de Dumont, Benjamin Espadafor, Mónica Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ferrise, Roberto García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Gao, Yujing Horan, Heidi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Izaurralde, Roberto César Jones, Curtis D. Kassie, Belay T. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Klein, Christian Köhler, Ann-Kristin Maiorano, Andrea Minoli, Sara Martin, Manuel MS Naresh, Soora K. Nendel, Claas O’Leary, Garry J. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Ripoche, Dominique Rötter, Reimund P. Semenov, Mikhail A. Stöckle, Claudio Streck, Thilo Supit, Iwan Tao, Fulu Velde, Marijn van der Wallach, Daniel Wang, Enli Webber, Heidi Wolf, Joost Xiao, Liujun Zhang, Zhao Zhao, Zhigan Zhu, Yan Asseng, Senthold |
| author_browse | Aggarwal, Pramod K. Ahmed, Mukhtar Asseng, Senthold Balkovič, Juraj Basso, Bruno Biernath, Christian Bindi, Marco Cammarano, Davide Challinor, Andrew J. Dumont, Benjamin Espadafor, Mónica Ewert, Frank Ferrise, Roberto Gao, Yujing García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Hoogenboom, Gerrit Horan, Heidi Izaurralde, Roberto César Jones, Curtis D. Kassie, Belay T. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Klein, Christian Köhler, Ann-Kristin Liu, Bing Maiorano, Andrea Martin, Manuel MS Martre, Pierre Minoli, Sara Müller, Christoph Naresh, Soora K. Nendel, Claas O’Leary, Garry J. Palosuo, Taru Porter, John R. Priesack, Eckart Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ripoche, Dominique Ruane, Alex C. Rötter, Reimund P. Sanctis, Giacomo de Semenov, Mikhail A. Streck, Thilo Stöckle, Claudio Supit, Iwan Tao, Fulu Thorburn, Peter J. Velde, Marijn van der Waha, Katharina Wallach, Daniel Wang, Enli Webber, Heidi Wolf, Joost Xiao, Liujun Zhang, Zhao Zhao, Zhigan Zhu, Yan |
| author_facet | Liu, Bing Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Porter, John R. Challinor, Andrew J. Müller, Christoph Ruane, Alex C. Waha, Katharina Thorburn, Peter J. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Ahmed, Mukhtar Balkovič, Juraj Basso, Bruno Biernath, Christian Bindi, Marco Cammarano, Davide Sanctis, Giacomo de Dumont, Benjamin Espadafor, Mónica Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ferrise, Roberto García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Gao, Yujing Horan, Heidi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Izaurralde, Roberto César Jones, Curtis D. Kassie, Belay T. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Klein, Christian Köhler, Ann-Kristin Maiorano, Andrea Minoli, Sara Martin, Manuel MS Naresh, Soora K. Nendel, Claas O’Leary, Garry J. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Ripoche, Dominique Rötter, Reimund P. Semenov, Mikhail A. Stöckle, Claudio Streck, Thilo Supit, Iwan Tao, Fulu Velde, Marijn van der Wallach, Daniel Wang, Enli Webber, Heidi Wolf, Joost Xiao, Liujun Zhang, Zhao Zhao, Zhigan Zhu, Yan Asseng, Senthold |
| author_sort | Liu, Bing |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering
changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield interannual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot
growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace106027 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1060272025-12-08T09:54:28Z Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming Liu, Bing Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Porter, John R. Challinor, Andrew J. Müller, Christoph Ruane, Alex C. Waha, Katharina Thorburn, Peter J. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Ahmed, Mukhtar Balkovič, Juraj Basso, Bruno Biernath, Christian Bindi, Marco Cammarano, Davide Sanctis, Giacomo de Dumont, Benjamin Espadafor, Mónica Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ferrise, Roberto García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Gao, Yujing Horan, Heidi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Izaurralde, Roberto César Jones, Curtis D. Kassie, Belay T. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Klein, Christian Köhler, Ann-Kristin Maiorano, Andrea Minoli, Sara Martin, Manuel MS Naresh, Soora K. Nendel, Claas O’Leary, Garry J. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Ripoche, Dominique Rötter, Reimund P. Semenov, Mikhail A. Stöckle, Claudio Streck, Thilo Supit, Iwan Tao, Fulu Velde, Marijn van der Wallach, Daniel Wang, Enli Webber, Heidi Wolf, Joost Xiao, Liujun Zhang, Zhao Zhao, Zhigan Zhu, Yan Asseng, Senthold climate change agriculture food security ecology Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield interannual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. 2019-04 2019-12-05T18:42:52Z 2019-12-05T18:42:52Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/106027 en Limited Access Wiley Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Müller C, Ruane AC, Waha K, Thorburn PJ, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Espadafor M, Rezaei EE, Ferrise R, Garcia‐Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Maiorano A, Minoli S, Montesino M, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O’Leary GJ, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Rötter RP, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Asseng S. 2019. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0° C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology 25(4):1428-1444. |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security ecology Liu, Bing Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Porter, John R. Challinor, Andrew J. Müller, Christoph Ruane, Alex C. Waha, Katharina Thorburn, Peter J. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Ahmed, Mukhtar Balkovič, Juraj Basso, Bruno Biernath, Christian Bindi, Marco Cammarano, Davide Sanctis, Giacomo de Dumont, Benjamin Espadafor, Mónica Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ferrise, Roberto García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Gao, Yujing Horan, Heidi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Izaurralde, Roberto César Jones, Curtis D. Kassie, Belay T. Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian Klein, Christian Köhler, Ann-Kristin Maiorano, Andrea Minoli, Sara Martin, Manuel MS Naresh, Soora K. Nendel, Claas O’Leary, Garry J. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Ripoche, Dominique Rötter, Reimund P. Semenov, Mikhail A. Stöckle, Claudio Streck, Thilo Supit, Iwan Tao, Fulu Velde, Marijn van der Wallach, Daniel Wang, Enli Webber, Heidi Wolf, Joost Xiao, Liujun Zhang, Zhao Zhao, Zhigan Zhu, Yan Asseng, Senthold Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title | Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title_full | Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title_fullStr | Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title_short | Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming |
| title_sort | global wheat production with 1 5 and 2 0°c above pre industrial warming |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security ecology |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/106027 |
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