The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis
To reach the goals set out by the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change are required by all actors in society. The European Union has set ambitious targets to reduce its emissions by a minimum of 40% un...
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| Formato: | H2 |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés sueco |
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SLU/Dept. of Economics
2016
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| Materias: |
| _version_ | 1855571524290871296 |
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| author | Robling, Helena |
| author_browse | Robling, Helena |
| author_facet | Robling, Helena |
| author_sort | Robling, Helena |
| collection | Epsilon Archive for Student Projects |
| description | To reach the goals set out by the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change are required by all actors in society. The European Union has set ambitious targets to reduce its emissions by a minimum of 40% until 2030. At the same time, the EU and the United States are negotiating a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, aiming at creating the largest free trade area in the world and increase trade, boost growth and create employment on both markets. As all economic activities, such an agreement will have environmental consequences. Thus far, critique towards the agreement from an environmental perspective has primarily been concerned with the possibility of a “race to the bottom” of environmental regulation in the name of free trade. Less attention has been paid to investigate the environmental impact of the strictly economic consequences which are desired from both parties.
This study investigates the environmental impact of the TTIP, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions related to several best case scenarios of economic effects. The environmentally extended input-output analysis provides a tool for integrated national and environmental accounting which can be used to visualize the environmental impact of a trade agreement. The GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) database is in this study used for extraction of a corresponding Input-Output table for the European Union, on which simulations of the economic impact of TTIP is computed, based on findings from previous CGE models developed by researchers in both Europe and the U.S. Henceforth, the economic impacts of increased exports and imports are translated into GHG emissions associated with the demand driven change in production and supply driven change in consumption of agricultural and food products within the region, using trade and emissions data for every product in the sector.
The result show a large discrepancy in the GHG impact of the TTIP between previous CGE models. The projections from the USDA scenario would lead to a net reduction in EU GHG emissions from the agri-food sector of 6.4 million tons CO2 equivalents (-1.4 percent), led by a reduction in export demand and corresponding output. The CEPR scenario would lead to an increase in EU GHG emissions of 28.1 million tons CO2 equivalents (5.9 percent), led by marginal increases in output and final demand. The projections from the European Parliament would in turn lead to a net increase in GHG emissions of 88.7 million tons CO2 equivalents (18.8 percent), led primarily by large and potentially overestimated percentage increases in export demand. The differences between the outcomes are mainly due to computational differences in the CGE models used, specifically the inclusion and quantification of non-tariff measures. Consistently throughout the scenarios, changes in trade flows in meat and dairy products amount for 65-80% of the emissions impact. Since the TTIP may potentially influence the climate goals of the EU, specific reference to the global climate efforts in the sustainability chapter is highly recommended. |
| format | H2 |
| id | RepoSLU9459 |
| institution | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences |
| language | Inglés swe |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | SLU/Dept. of Economics |
| publisherStr | SLU/Dept. of Economics |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | RepoSLU94592016-09-23T08:16:13Z The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis Robling, Helena agriculture climate environment food GHG emissons impact analysis input-output policy trade TTIP To reach the goals set out by the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change are required by all actors in society. The European Union has set ambitious targets to reduce its emissions by a minimum of 40% until 2030. At the same time, the EU and the United States are negotiating a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, aiming at creating the largest free trade area in the world and increase trade, boost growth and create employment on both markets. As all economic activities, such an agreement will have environmental consequences. Thus far, critique towards the agreement from an environmental perspective has primarily been concerned with the possibility of a “race to the bottom” of environmental regulation in the name of free trade. Less attention has been paid to investigate the environmental impact of the strictly economic consequences which are desired from both parties. This study investigates the environmental impact of the TTIP, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions related to several best case scenarios of economic effects. The environmentally extended input-output analysis provides a tool for integrated national and environmental accounting which can be used to visualize the environmental impact of a trade agreement. The GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) database is in this study used for extraction of a corresponding Input-Output table for the European Union, on which simulations of the economic impact of TTIP is computed, based on findings from previous CGE models developed by researchers in both Europe and the U.S. Henceforth, the economic impacts of increased exports and imports are translated into GHG emissions associated with the demand driven change in production and supply driven change in consumption of agricultural and food products within the region, using trade and emissions data for every product in the sector. The result show a large discrepancy in the GHG impact of the TTIP between previous CGE models. The projections from the USDA scenario would lead to a net reduction in EU GHG emissions from the agri-food sector of 6.4 million tons CO2 equivalents (-1.4 percent), led by a reduction in export demand and corresponding output. The CEPR scenario would lead to an increase in EU GHG emissions of 28.1 million tons CO2 equivalents (5.9 percent), led by marginal increases in output and final demand. The projections from the European Parliament would in turn lead to a net increase in GHG emissions of 88.7 million tons CO2 equivalents (18.8 percent), led primarily by large and potentially overestimated percentage increases in export demand. The differences between the outcomes are mainly due to computational differences in the CGE models used, specifically the inclusion and quantification of non-tariff measures. Consistently throughout the scenarios, changes in trade flows in meat and dairy products amount for 65-80% of the emissions impact. Since the TTIP may potentially influence the climate goals of the EU, specific reference to the global climate efforts in the sustainability chapter is highly recommended. För att begränsa den globala uppvärmningen till väl under 2 grader och uppfylla de globala mål som sattes upp under klimatkonferensen COP21 i Paris i december 2015 behövs betydande åtgärder av alla samhällets aktörer för att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser. EU har i enlighet med Parisavtalet satt som mål att minska sina utsläpp med minst 40 % fram till 2030. Samtidigt förhandlas ett transatlantiskt handelsavtal mellan EU och USA som syftar till att skapa det största frihandelsområdet i världen, ge ökad tillväxt och skapa arbetstillfällen på båda marknaderna. I likhet med andra storskaliga ekonomiska aktiviteter kommer handelsavtalet medföra miljökonsekvenser. Fram till idag har miljörörelsens kritik mot avtalet främst fokuserat på risken att miljöregleringar klassas som handelshinder och undermineras till förmån för liberalisering och ökade handelsströmmar. Avsevärt mindre uppmärksamhet har riktats emot miljöeffekterna av de uttalade ekonomiska målen med avtalet, det vill säga ökad export och import av varor och tjänster. Denna studie undersöker miljöeffekterna av handelsavtalet TTIP, i form av de växthusgasutsläpp som kan förväntas av ökad handel i jordbruks och livsmedelsprodukter. En miljöutvidgad input-output modell används för att integrera miljö- och nationalräkenskaper och på så sätt åskådliggöra miljöeffekter av ett handelsavtal. Data hämtas från GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) och används för att utvinna en input-outputmatris för EU på vilken handelseffekter av TTIP simuleras i tre scenarier. Scenarierna baseras på tidigare jämviktsmodeller framtagna på begäran av flera aktörer; EU Kommissionen, Europaparlamentet och USAs jordbruksministerium (USDA). Vidare är handelseffekterna av ökad import och export inom EU översatta till växthusgasutsläpp med ursprung i förändringar av utbud och efterfrågan på jordbruks och livsmedelsprodukter genom utsläppsdata relaterad till produktionsprocessen av olika produkter. Resultaten visar stora skillnader i utsläpp mellan de olika scenarierna. I enlighet med resultaten från USAs jordbruksministerium skulle TTIP leda till en minskning av jordbruksrelaterade växthusgasutsläpp inom EU med 6.4 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter (-1.4 procent), på grund av minskad exportefterfrågan och produktion. Det scenario från CEPR som EU Kommissionen använder som underlag för TTIP förhandlingarna skulle leda till en ökning av jordbruksrelaterade växthusgasutsläpp inom EU med 28.1 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter (5.9 procent), på grund av marginella ökningar i efterfrågan och produktion. Scenariot som baseras på Europaparlamentets beräkningar skulle leda till en ökning av jordbruksrelaterade växthusgasutsläpp inom EU med 88.7 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter (18.8 procent), främst på grund av höga och potentiellt överskattade ökningar i exportefterfrågan. Skillnaderna mellan utfallen av de olika scenarierna förklaras främst av tekniska olikheter i jämviktsmodellerna, framförallt inkludering och kvantifiering av olika handelshinder. Konsekvent i alla scenarier innefattar handel i kött och mjölkprodukter 65-80% av utsläppseffekterna. Eftersom TTIP har potential att påverka EUs klimatmål rekommenderas att specifika referenser till Parisavtalet inkluderas i handelsavtalets hållbarhetskapitel. SLU/Dept. of Economics 2016 H2 eng swe https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/9459/ |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate environment food GHG emissons impact analysis input-output policy trade TTIP Robling, Helena The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title | The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title_full | The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title_fullStr | The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title_short | The impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| title_sort | impact of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership on agri-food trade and greenhouse gas emissions in the eu : an environmentally extended input-output analysis |
| topic | agriculture climate environment food GHG emissons impact analysis input-output policy trade TTIP |