The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector
On the 29th of March 2019, the U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union. This withdrawal is estimated to affect both the U.K. and economies interacting with the U.K. This thesis aims to examine whether Brexit, through its effect on the British Pound, has an impact on the Swedish export of sawn...
| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | H2 |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés sueco |
| Publicado: |
SLU/Dept. of Economics
2018
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| Materias: |
| _version_ | 1855572290173927424 |
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| author | Lundberg, Carl |
| author_browse | Lundberg, Carl |
| author_facet | Lundberg, Carl |
| author_sort | Lundberg, Carl |
| collection | Epsilon Archive for Student Projects |
| description | On the 29th of March 2019, the U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union. This withdrawal is estimated to affect both the U.K. and economies interacting with the U.K. This thesis aims to examine whether Brexit, through its effect on the British Pound, has an impact on the Swedish export of sawn softwood. The impact of exchange rates has been tested on as well aggregate export levels as disaggregate export levels in several other studies but with mixed results. At the same time, it has not been done on the Swedish market at this disaggregated level of forestry products before and is, therefore, an interesting subject to investigate further. The data used is multivariate monthly time series data, ranging from July 2005 to September 2017. A cointegrating relationship is established by the Johansen test leading to an estimation of a Vector Error-Correction Model. Finally, the Granger Causality test tests the existence of shortrun causality amongst the variables. The results show that the exchange rate of the GBP/SEK affects the Swedish export of sawn softwood in the long term, but not in the short term. A continued stable and efficient pricing strategy could help to promote the Swedish exports of sawn softwood and retain their market power in the U.K. |
| format | H2 |
| id | RepoSLU13710 |
| institution | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences |
| language | Inglés swe |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | SLU/Dept. of Economics |
| publisherStr | SLU/Dept. of Economics |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | RepoSLU137102019-02-25T13:23:55Z The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector Lundberg, Carl Brexit Exchange Rate Export Forest Industry Time Series Analysis Vector Error Correction Model On the 29th of March 2019, the U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union. This withdrawal is estimated to affect both the U.K. and economies interacting with the U.K. This thesis aims to examine whether Brexit, through its effect on the British Pound, has an impact on the Swedish export of sawn softwood. The impact of exchange rates has been tested on as well aggregate export levels as disaggregate export levels in several other studies but with mixed results. At the same time, it has not been done on the Swedish market at this disaggregated level of forestry products before and is, therefore, an interesting subject to investigate further. The data used is multivariate monthly time series data, ranging from July 2005 to September 2017. A cointegrating relationship is established by the Johansen test leading to an estimation of a Vector Error-Correction Model. Finally, the Granger Causality test tests the existence of shortrun causality amongst the variables. The results show that the exchange rate of the GBP/SEK affects the Swedish export of sawn softwood in the long term, but not in the short term. A continued stable and efficient pricing strategy could help to promote the Swedish exports of sawn softwood and retain their market power in the U.K. Den 29 mars 2019 är det planerat att Storbritannien skall lämna EU. Detta utträde är bedömt att påverka både Storbritannien samt de länder som interagerar med Storbritannien. Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera huruvida Brexit, genom dess effekt på valutakursen av det brittiska pundet, har en påverkan på den svenska exporten av barrträ. Analyser av växelkurseffekter har gjorts på både aggregerad och disaggregerad nivå i andra studier men med blandade resultat. Samtidigt har det inte gjorts på denna disaggregerade nivå på den svenska marknaden förut, vilket gör det till ett intressant ämne att analysera. Datan som har använts är månatlig multivariabel tidsserie-data från juli 2005 till september 2017. Analyserna görs i form av ett Johansen-test av cointegration samt av en Vector Error-Correction Model. Fortsatt utvärderas eventuell kausalitet mellan variablerna på kort sikt med ett Granger Causality-test. Resultaten visar att det finns en påverkan av växelkursförändringar i GBP/SEK på den svenska exporten av barrträ på lång sikt, men inte på kort sikt. En fortsatt effektiv och stabil prissättning kan hjälpa med att främja den svenska exporten av barrträ samt att behålla det marknadsinflytande som Sverige har i Storbritannien. SLU/Dept. of Economics 2018 H2 eng swe https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/13710/ |
| spellingShingle | Brexit Exchange Rate Export Forest Industry Time Series Analysis Vector Error Correction Model Lundberg, Carl The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title | The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title_full | The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title_short | The Impact of Brexit on the Swedish Economy : a Study on the Swedish Forest Products Export Sector |
| title_sort | impact of brexit on the swedish economy : a study on the swedish forest products export sector |
| topic | Brexit Exchange Rate Export Forest Industry Time Series Analysis Vector Error Correction Model |