Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP)
The Healthcheck is an evaluation of the 2003 years reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). When the Healthcheck of CAP is decided, most likely in the beginning of 2009, there will be a discussion about how CAP will appear in the next budget period 2013. One main question in the Healthcheck i...
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| Formato: | Otro |
| Lenguaje: | sueco sueco |
| Publicado: |
2009
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| Acceso en línea: | https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10942/ |
| _version_ | 1855571779605495808 |
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| author | Källman, Camilla |
| author_browse | Källman, Camilla |
| author_facet | Källman, Camilla |
| author_sort | Källman, Camilla |
| collection | Epsilon Archive for Student Projects |
| description | The Healthcheck is an evaluation of the 2003 years reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). When the Healthcheck of CAP is decided, most likely in the beginning of 2009, there will be a discussion about how CAP will appear in the next budget period 2013. One main question in the Healthcheck is how the farm support will be designed. A suggestion that has arised is if todays addition amount for dairy- and beef production should be transferred to the fundamental farm support. In this exam theses calculations has been done in created typical farms in every Swedish support region for cereals-, dairy- and beef production. Also calculations for horse farms that offers nature riding have been made. Personal deep interviews have been done with farmers in these different areas. This potential transfer to fundamental farm support does not benefit neither dairy- or beef production, whether the price level of 2007 or 2015 is used. If the expected price level of 2015 is used, dairy producers can get a reduced income between -15,4 to -39,2 %. Beef producers risk to get a reduced income between -30 to -38,9 %. One probable development if this transfer take place in year 2015 is that there could be fewer dairy- and beef producers in the southern part of Sweden. These farmers can instead change their production to cereal production. One development towards increase cereal production with larger farms would also result in more sparsely populated area between farms and therefore less population in the actual area. A development can take place that smaller farms are shut down and included into bigger unities. That does not benefit the desirable development for the countryside, which is the opposite . When it comes to cereals it should be mentioned that the prices were high in year 2007, and therefore there were higher incomes than usual for the cereal farmers. With consideration to the price level 2007 and what support region set in focus, the income for cereal farmers could vary between 1,9 – 12,7 %. Consider the hypothetical price level of 2015, TB 2 would decrease for all farmers except one. That is despite increased basic amount the fundamental farm support. Overall the cereal farmers would be the once that get more payments. Also horse farms benefits from a increase of the fundamental farm support. Although horse farms have lower land area, an increase in the fundamental farm support would be of big meaning for them according to the interviews in this study.
If there would be a raise in the fundamental farm support the value of the land would increase as well. This can affect the farmers who rent large areas for their production. If the farm support rises it actually means that the land owner who rents out can demand a higher price.
If the climate change question is taken into consideration, it is also conceivable that the conditions for cereal production in the long run would be improved northwards. In that case the development in Swedish agriculture structure becomes more like regardless localisation. If the farm conditions become better more northwards in Sweden, maybe it will be according to Krugmans economical geography. That is more people that move there due to increased concentration. That could be an improvement for the development of the rural areas. |
| format | Otro |
| id | RepoSLU10942 |
| institution | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences |
| language | Swedish swe |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | RepoSLU109422017-09-20T09:02:14Z https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10942/ Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) Källman, Camilla Agricultural economics and policies The Healthcheck is an evaluation of the 2003 years reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). When the Healthcheck of CAP is decided, most likely in the beginning of 2009, there will be a discussion about how CAP will appear in the next budget period 2013. One main question in the Healthcheck is how the farm support will be designed. A suggestion that has arised is if todays addition amount for dairy- and beef production should be transferred to the fundamental farm support. In this exam theses calculations has been done in created typical farms in every Swedish support region for cereals-, dairy- and beef production. Also calculations for horse farms that offers nature riding have been made. Personal deep interviews have been done with farmers in these different areas. This potential transfer to fundamental farm support does not benefit neither dairy- or beef production, whether the price level of 2007 or 2015 is used. If the expected price level of 2015 is used, dairy producers can get a reduced income between -15,4 to -39,2 %. Beef producers risk to get a reduced income between -30 to -38,9 %. One probable development if this transfer take place in year 2015 is that there could be fewer dairy- and beef producers in the southern part of Sweden. These farmers can instead change their production to cereal production. One development towards increase cereal production with larger farms would also result in more sparsely populated area between farms and therefore less population in the actual area. A development can take place that smaller farms are shut down and included into bigger unities. That does not benefit the desirable development for the countryside, which is the opposite . When it comes to cereals it should be mentioned that the prices were high in year 2007, and therefore there were higher incomes than usual for the cereal farmers. With consideration to the price level 2007 and what support region set in focus, the income for cereal farmers could vary between 1,9 – 12,7 %. Consider the hypothetical price level of 2015, TB 2 would decrease for all farmers except one. That is despite increased basic amount the fundamental farm support. Overall the cereal farmers would be the once that get more payments. Also horse farms benefits from a increase of the fundamental farm support. Although horse farms have lower land area, an increase in the fundamental farm support would be of big meaning for them according to the interviews in this study. If there would be a raise in the fundamental farm support the value of the land would increase as well. This can affect the farmers who rent large areas for their production. If the farm support rises it actually means that the land owner who rents out can demand a higher price. If the climate change question is taken into consideration, it is also conceivable that the conditions for cereal production in the long run would be improved northwards. In that case the development in Swedish agriculture structure becomes more like regardless localisation. If the farm conditions become better more northwards in Sweden, maybe it will be according to Krugmans economical geography. That is more people that move there due to increased concentration. That could be an improvement for the development of the rural areas. Hälsokontrollen är en översyn av 2003 års reform av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP). När Hälsokontrollen av CAP är beslutad (sannolikt i början av 2009) startar en diskussion om hur CAP skall se ut i nästa budgetperiod efter 2013. Hur gårdsstödet kommer att konstrueras på sikt är en huvudfråga i Hälsokontrollen. Ett förslag som kommit att diskuteras är ifall dagens tilläggsbelopp för mjölk- och nötköttsproduktion ska tas bort och istället läggas i gårdstödets grundbelopp. Beräkningar på typgårdar i varje stödregion har gjorts inom spannmål-, mjölk och nötköttsproduktion samt turridningsföretag (hästverksamhet). Det har dessutom gjorts personliga djupintervjuer med lantbrukare inom dessa olika verksamheter. En utjämning av tilläggsbeloppen inom mjölk- och nötköttsproduktion är inte gynnsam vare sig 2007 eller 2015 års prisnivå beaktas. Tas 2015 års prisnivå i beaktande i TB 2 riskerar mjölkproducenter att förlora en inkomst mellan 15,4- 39,2 %. Nötköttsproducenterna riskerar att förlora relativt lika inkomster oberoende på produktionslokalisering, 30-38,9 %. En trolig utveckling där är att ifall denna utjämning sker år 2015 kommer kanske det bli färre mjölk- och nötköttsproducenter i de södra delarna av Sverige. De kan, som följd, istället komma att försöka byta produktionsinriktning till spannmål. En utveckling mot ökad spannmålsodling med större gårdar torde även medföra glesare mellan gårdar och därmed minskad befolkning i det aktuella området. Mindre gårdar läggs ner och slås samman i större enheter. Det gynnar inte den önskvärda utvecklingen för landsbygden som är den motsatta.2 När det gällde spannmål är det viktigt att tänka på att det 2007 var höga spannmålspriser och att intäkterna hos spannmålsproducenterna därmed varit höga. Med hänsyn till 2007 års prisnivå skulle intäkterna hos spannmålsproducenterna kunna variera från 1,9 – 12,7 %, beroende på vilken stödregion de tillhör. Ifall hänsyn tas till 2015 års prisnivå skulle TB 2, trots ökat grundbelopp i gårdsstödet, minska hos samtliga typgårdar förutom en. Detta har alltså att göra med en förväntad prissänkning år 2015. I det stora hela får spannmålsproducenter högre stöd än innan utjämningen. Även hästgårdar gynnas med högre grundbelopp efter en utjämning av tilläggsbeloppen. Trots hästgårdarnas lägre arealstorlekar betyder en ökning av stödet mycket enligt de intervjuer som gjorts. Ifall gårdsstödets grundbelopp ökar skulle det även kunna medföra att värdet för jordbruksmarken stiger och därmed också arrendekostnaderna. Detta kan drabba de som arrenderar stora arealer jordbruksmark till sin produktion. Stiger gårdsstödets grundbelopp innebär det faktiskt att markägaren som arrenderar ut sin mark kan begära ett högre arrende - belopp. Ifall det tas hänsyn till den omdiskuterade klimatfrågan är det också tänkbart att förutsättningarna att bedriva till exempel spannmålsodling kommer att bli bättre längre norrut på lång sikt. I det fallet går utvecklingen i lantbrukets struktur mot att se mer lika ut oberoende av lokalisering i Sverige. Ifall situationen är sådan att odlingsmöjligheterna blir bättre mer norrut i Sverige kanske det blir enligt Krugmans ekonomiska geografi att fler flyttar dit på grund av ökad koncentration. Det skulle i så fall gynna utveckligen av landsbygden i dessa områden. 2009-05-04 Other NonPeerReviewed application/pdf sv https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10942/1/kallman_c_170920.pdf Källman, Camilla, 2009. Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) : effekter på lantbruket genom gårdsstödet. UNSPECIFIED, Uppsala. Uppsala: (NL, NJ) > Dept. of Economics <https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/view/divisions/OID-510.html> urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-s-7011 swe |
| spellingShingle | Agricultural economics and policies Källman, Camilla Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title | Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title_full | Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title_fullStr | Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title_short | Hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (CAP) |
| title_sort | hälsokontrollen av den gemensamma jordbrukspolitiken (cap) |
| topic | Agricultural economics and policies |
| url | https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10942/ https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10942/ |