Lönsamheten i vindkraft
This thesis analyzes the expected profitability in land based wind power plants. The expected profitability is calculated on the basis of a wind power project in Vartofta, Falköping. The information required to calculate the expected outcome is then concentrated to this project, which is in this the...
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| Format: | Otro |
| Language: | Swedish Swedish |
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2007
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| Online Access: | https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10880/ |
| _version_ | 1855571767849910272 |
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| author | Jensen, Luciano |
| author_browse | Jensen, Luciano |
| author_facet | Jensen, Luciano |
| author_sort | Jensen, Luciano |
| collection | Epsilon Archive for Student Projects |
| description | This thesis analyzes the expected profitability in land based wind power plants. The expected profitability is calculated on the basis of a wind power project in Vartofta, Falköping. The information required to calculate the expected outcome is then concentrated to this project, which is in this thesis called project Näs. In project Näs they plan to build three wind power plants, with each an effect of 2 MWh. These wind power plants are very capital intensive investments with a long and uncertain payback time. This is the case of all wind power investments, which creates an essential need for further analysis in the expected profitability of land based wind power plants.
The main purpose of the thesis is to calculate the expected profitability in land based wind power investments. Further the purpose is to develop a model which easily can calculate the expected profitability of a wind power plant investment. This model is applicable to all land based wind power plant investments. This is possible through a study of an present project
Uncertainty is been taken into consideration by using experts and their personal expectations in the uncertain variables of the investment calculation sheet. The personal expectations are created as probability distributions. The uncertainty is therefore observed in probability distributions, reflecting the uncertain variables expected values. The uncertain variables in this thesis are electricity price year 2008, electricity price 2017, electricity price year 2023, electricity price 2027, electricity connection cost and the variation of the wind. To calculate the expected net present value I have chosen to apply the Monte Carlo simulation technique. In the Monte Carlo technique the input variables are able to vary in consideration to the probability distributions.
The thesis states that investment in wind power is actually profitable as long as the expected yield on the investment lays between six and seven percent. This is the case even when there are large costs involved in such investment. These large are expected to get smaller since the development of wind power otherwise will suffer. The result also shows which variables that has the biggest effect on the net present value of the investment. The variables that has the biggest effect on the investment is electricity price 2008 and the electricity price 2017. |
| format | Otro |
| id | RepoSLU10880 |
| institution | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences |
| language | Swedish swe |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | RepoSLU108802017-09-21T11:40:05Z https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10880/ Lönsamheten i vindkraft Jensen, Luciano Renewable energy resources This thesis analyzes the expected profitability in land based wind power plants. The expected profitability is calculated on the basis of a wind power project in Vartofta, Falköping. The information required to calculate the expected outcome is then concentrated to this project, which is in this thesis called project Näs. In project Näs they plan to build three wind power plants, with each an effect of 2 MWh. These wind power plants are very capital intensive investments with a long and uncertain payback time. This is the case of all wind power investments, which creates an essential need for further analysis in the expected profitability of land based wind power plants. The main purpose of the thesis is to calculate the expected profitability in land based wind power investments. Further the purpose is to develop a model which easily can calculate the expected profitability of a wind power plant investment. This model is applicable to all land based wind power plant investments. This is possible through a study of an present project Uncertainty is been taken into consideration by using experts and their personal expectations in the uncertain variables of the investment calculation sheet. The personal expectations are created as probability distributions. The uncertainty is therefore observed in probability distributions, reflecting the uncertain variables expected values. The uncertain variables in this thesis are electricity price year 2008, electricity price 2017, electricity price year 2023, electricity price 2027, electricity connection cost and the variation of the wind. To calculate the expected net present value I have chosen to apply the Monte Carlo simulation technique. In the Monte Carlo technique the input variables are able to vary in consideration to the probability distributions. The thesis states that investment in wind power is actually profitable as long as the expected yield on the investment lays between six and seven percent. This is the case even when there are large costs involved in such investment. These large are expected to get smaller since the development of wind power otherwise will suffer. The result also shows which variables that has the biggest effect on the net present value of the investment. The variables that has the biggest effect on the investment is electricity price 2008 and the electricity price 2017. I detta arbete analyseras den förväntade lönsamheten i landsbaserade vindkraftverk. Lönsamheten beräknades utifrån ett vindkraftprojekt i Vartofta, Falköping. Datainsamlingen koncentreras därför till detta projekt, som i arbetet kallas för projektet Näs. I projektet Näs planeras det att uppföra tre stycken vindkraftverk med vardera en effekt på 2 MWh. Dessa vindkraftsanläggningar är mycket kapitalintensiva investeringar med en lång och oviss återbetalningstid. Detta resonemang gäller för alla vindkraftverk, och därmed är behovet av att analysera den förväntade lönsamheten stor. Huvudyftet med arbetet är att bestämma den förväntade lönsamheten inom landsbaserade vindkraftverk. Vidare syfte är att utveckla en modell som lätt kan räkna fram den förväntade lönsamheten i vindkraftsinvesteringar. Denna modell ska vara applicerbar på alla vindkraftsinvesteringar som genomförs på land. Detta möjliggörs genom att analysera ett pågående projekt. Osäkerhet beaktas i arbetet genom att experter inom området ger uttryck för sina personliga förväntningar över ett antal variabler som ingår i investeringskalkylen. Dessa personliga förväntningar tar i arbetet formen av sannolikhetsfördelningar. Osäkerheten i investeringen tas fram genom sannolikhetsfördelningar som speglar variabelns framtida förväntade värde. Genom att estimera osäkerheten beskrivs förändringen av den osäkerhet som finns under vindkraftverkets livslängd. De osäkra variablerna i arbetet är elpriset 2008,elpriset 2017, elpriset 2023, elpriset 2027, elanslutningskostnaden samt vindens variation. Den förväntade lönsamheten har jag valt att ta fram genom Monte Carlo simulering. I Monte Carlo simulering tillåts de olika ingångsvariablerna variera efter de framtagna sannolikhetsfördelningarna. Denna simuleringsprocess leder fram till ett förväntad nettonuvärde över vindkraftsinvesteringen. I arbetet framgår det att det är lönsamt att investera i vindkraft när avkastningskravet ligger mellan sex och sju procent. Detta trots att det finns stora kostnaddrivare i kalkylen. Dessa kostnaddrivare tros dock minska med tiden, eftersom utvecklingen av vindkraft annars hämmas. Vidare är investering lönsam trots att det finns en osäkerhet förknippad med den förväntade intäkten. Grundstommen i ett lönsamt vindkraftprojekt är att vindkraftverket producerar tillräckligt med el, men också att elpriset på marknaden är tillräckligt högt. Resultatet visar också vilka variabler som har den största effekten på lönsamheten, detta i en känslighetsanalys. Variablerna som visade sig ha den största effekten var elpriset 2008 och elpriset 2017. 2007-09-13 Other NonPeerReviewed application/pdf sv https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10880/1/jensen_l_170921.pdf Jensen, Luciano, 2007. Lönsamheten i vindkraft : en studie om den förväntade lönsamheten i landsbaserad vindkraft. UNSPECIFIED, Uppsala. Uppsala: (NL, NJ) > Dept. of Economics <https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/view/divisions/OID-510.html> urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-s-7079 swe |
| spellingShingle | Renewable energy resources Jensen, Luciano Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title | Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title_full | Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title_fullStr | Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title_short | Lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| title_sort | lönsamheten i vindkraft |
| topic | Renewable energy resources |
| url | https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10880/ https://stud.epsilon.slu.se/10880/ |