Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods
Cocoa attainable yields are affected by a complex of pests and diseases in a particular agro-environment. Estimation of yield loss is critical for agronomic and economic decision-making at the farm level. For over 15 months, we monitored 1100 pods from six cocoa clones (PMCT-58, CC-137, CATIE-R1 CAT...
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Frontiers
2024
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| Online Access: | https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12632 |
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RepoCATIE126322024-04-04T01:02:20Z Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods Orozco-Aguilar, Luis López Sampson, Arlene Barboza, Luis A. Borda, María José Leandro Muñoz, Mariela E Bordeaux, Melanie Cerda, Rolando H Ayestas Villega, Eusebio Somarriba, Eduardo Supervivencia||survival||sobrevivência||survie Peligros||hazards||undefined||danger Plantas de sombra||shade plants||planta de sombra||plante d'ombrage Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao Vainas||pods||vagem||gousse Rendimiento||yields||rendimento||rendement Shaded cocoa Pod counting Pod index Attainable yields Sede Central ODS 12 - Producción y consumo responsables Cocoa attainable yields are affected by a complex of pests and diseases in a particular agro-environment. Estimation of yield loss is critical for agronomic and economic decision-making at the farm level. For over 15 months, we monitored 1100 pods from six cocoa clones (PMCT-58, CC-137, CATIE-R1 CATIE-R4, ICS-95, and CCN-51) to assess the incidence of pests and diseases and to elucidate their survival behavior. Cocoa clones grow in a 12-year timber-based cocoa agroforestry plot (1330 cocoa plants ha-1, 100 shade trees ha-1, and 65% shade cover), in La Montaña, Turrialba, Costa Rica. Between 6-12 trees and 120-140 pods per clone of four size classes (very small – 2.5-7 cm, small – 7.1-14 cm, medium – 14.1-21 cm, and large – ≥21 cm) were tagged and measured fortnightly. Pods were selected at two vertical strata along the tree trunk (below and above 1.5 m) and grouped into three generations (rainy, transition, and dry). Competitive risk and survival analysis were performed per clone, generation, pod size class, and pod position along the tree trunk. Overall, pods reached maturity at the age of 155-165 days and were exposed to several hazards that disrupted their development. The Cox model that better described the cumulative risk during pod development included two covariables with substantial explicative power, generation, and clones. Regardless of clone and pod generation, a combination of diseases/pests accounted for about 45% to 65% of yield losses. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that pod survival was similar between generations but differed among clones within generations. Pods from CATIE-R1, CATIE-R4 and CC-137 clones showed greater survival rates than those of ICS-95, CCN-51 and PMCT-58 clones. The position of the pod along the tree trunk did not influence pod survival rates. We combined pod counting and pod survival rates calculated in this study and contrasted our yield estimations against a widely used prediction method proposed by a certification body. Overall, yield estimated using the UTZ method applied to 90-day-old pods of CATIE-R1 clone consistently overestimated yield predictions in the range of 27-45%. We proposed the combination of pod counting and pod index with a set of clone-specific discount factors; the survival rates, to reliably forecast on-farm cacao yields over time. 2024-04-02T15:25:53Z 2024-04-02T15:25:53Z 2024-03-22 Artículo https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12632 openAccess en Agronomy https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2024.1290035 14 páginas application/pdf Frontiers |
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Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza |
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Repositorio CATIE |
| language |
Inglés |
| topic |
Supervivencia||survival||sobrevivência||survie Peligros||hazards||undefined||danger Plantas de sombra||shade plants||planta de sombra||plante d'ombrage Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao Vainas||pods||vagem||gousse Rendimiento||yields||rendimento||rendement Shaded cocoa Pod counting Pod index Attainable yields Sede Central ODS 12 - Producción y consumo responsables |
| spellingShingle |
Supervivencia||survival||sobrevivência||survie Peligros||hazards||undefined||danger Plantas de sombra||shade plants||planta de sombra||plante d'ombrage Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao||Theobroma cacao Vainas||pods||vagem||gousse Rendimiento||yields||rendimento||rendement Shaded cocoa Pod counting Pod index Attainable yields Sede Central ODS 12 - Producción y consumo responsables Orozco-Aguilar, Luis López Sampson, Arlene Barboza, Luis A. Borda, María José Leandro Muñoz, Mariela E Bordeaux, Melanie Cerda, Rolando H Ayestas Villega, Eusebio Somarriba, Eduardo Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| description |
Cocoa attainable yields are affected by a complex of pests and diseases in a particular agro-environment. Estimation of yield loss is critical for agronomic and economic decision-making at the farm level. For over 15 months, we monitored 1100 pods from six cocoa clones (PMCT-58, CC-137, CATIE-R1 CATIE-R4, ICS-95, and CCN-51) to assess the incidence of pests and diseases and to elucidate their survival behavior. Cocoa clones grow in a 12-year timber-based cocoa agroforestry plot (1330 cocoa plants ha-1, 100 shade trees ha-1, and 65% shade cover), in La Montaña, Turrialba, Costa Rica. Between 6-12 trees and 120-140 pods per clone of four size classes (very small – 2.5-7 cm, small – 7.1-14 cm, medium – 14.1-21 cm, and large – ≥21 cm) were tagged and measured fortnightly. Pods were selected at two vertical strata along the tree trunk (below and above 1.5 m) and grouped into three generations (rainy, transition, and dry). Competitive risk and survival analysis were performed per clone, generation, pod size class, and pod position along the tree trunk. Overall, pods reached maturity at the age of 155-165 days and were exposed to several hazards that disrupted their development. The Cox model that better described the cumulative risk during pod development included two covariables with substantial explicative power, generation, and clones. Regardless of clone and pod generation, a combination of diseases/pests accounted for about 45% to 65% of yield losses. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that pod survival was similar between generations but differed among clones within generations. Pods from CATIE-R1, CATIE-R4 and CC-137 clones showed greater survival rates than those of ICS-95, CCN-51 and PMCT-58 clones. The position of the pod along the tree trunk did not influence pod survival rates. We combined pod counting and pod survival rates calculated in this study and contrasted our yield estimations against a widely used prediction method proposed by a certification body. Overall, yield estimated using the UTZ method applied to 90-day-old pods of CATIE-R1 clone consistently overestimated yield predictions in the range of 27-45%. We proposed the combination of pod counting and pod index with a set of clone-specific discount factors; the survival rates, to reliably forecast on-farm cacao yields over time. |
| format |
Artículo |
| author |
Orozco-Aguilar, Luis López Sampson, Arlene Barboza, Luis A. Borda, María José Leandro Muñoz, Mariela E Bordeaux, Melanie Cerda, Rolando H Ayestas Villega, Eusebio Somarriba, Eduardo |
| author_facet |
Orozco-Aguilar, Luis López Sampson, Arlene Barboza, Luis A. Borda, María José Leandro Muñoz, Mariela E Bordeaux, Melanie Cerda, Rolando H Ayestas Villega, Eusebio Somarriba, Eduardo |
| author_sort |
Orozco-Aguilar, Luis |
| title |
Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| title_short |
Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| title_full |
Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| title_fullStr |
Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| title_sort |
risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods |
| publisher |
Frontiers |
| publishDate |
2024 |
| url |
https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12632 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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