Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Mod...

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Autor principal:	Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés
Formato:	Artículo
Lenguaje:	Inglés
Publicado:	Sustainability 2023
Materias:	CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO CLIMATE CHANGE CORRIENTES DE AGUA WATER CURRENTS PRECIPITACION ATMOSFERICA PRECIPITATION CUENCAS HIDROGRAFICAS WATERSHEDS COSTA RICA Sede Central
Acceso en línea:	https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12221

id	RepoCATIE12221
record_format	dspace
spelling	RepoCATIE122212023-01-03T17:34:19Z Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO CLIMATE CHANGE CORRIENTES DE AGUA WATER CURRENTS PRECIPITACION ATMOSFERICA PRECIPITATION CUENCAS HIDROGRAFICAS WATERSHEDS COSTA RICA Sede Central This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), specifically HadRM3P and RCA4, was selected to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the 1961–1990 baseline period. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical monthly surface runoff patterns of each catchment. Following calibration and validation of the GRM2 model, the projected impact of climate change on streamflow was simulated for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) for each catchment using the bias-corrected GCM-RCM multimodel ensemble-mean (MEM). Results anticipate wetter conditions for all catchments in the near-future and mid-future periods under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, whereas dryer conditions are expected for the far-future period under RCP 8.5. Projected temperature trends indicate consistently warmer conditions with increasing radiative forcing and future periods. Streamflow changes across all catchments however are dominated by variations in projected precipitation. Wetter conditions for the near-future and mid-future horizons under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 would result in higher runoff volumes, particularly during the late wet season (LWS). Conversely, dryer conditions for the far-future period under RCP8.5 would result in considerably lower runoff volumes during the early wet season (EWS) and the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). In consequence, projected seasonal changes on streamflow across all catchments may result in more frequent flooding, droughts, and water supply shortage compared to historical hydrological regimes. 2023-01-02T15:46:02Z 2023-01-02T15:46:02Z 2022-12 Artículo https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12221 openAccess en Sustainability https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416938 31 páginas application/pdf Sustainability
institution	Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza
collection	Repositorio CATIE
language	Inglés
topic	CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO CLIMATE CHANGE CORRIENTES DE AGUA WATER CURRENTS PRECIPITACION ATMOSFERICA PRECIPITATION CUENCAS HIDROGRAFICAS WATERSHEDS COSTA RICA Sede Central
spellingShingle	CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO CLIMATE CHANGE CORRIENTES DE AGUA WATER CURRENTS PRECIPITACION ATMOSFERICA PRECIPITATION CUENCAS HIDROGRAFICAS WATERSHEDS COSTA RICA Sede Central Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
description	This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), specifically HadRM3P and RCA4, was selected to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the 1961–1990 baseline period. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical monthly surface runoff patterns of each catchment. Following calibration and validation of the GRM2 model, the projected impact of climate change on streamflow was simulated for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) for each catchment using the bias-corrected GCM-RCM multimodel ensemble-mean (MEM). Results anticipate wetter conditions for all catchments in the near-future and mid-future periods under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, whereas dryer conditions are expected for the far-future period under RCP 8.5. Projected temperature trends indicate consistently warmer conditions with increasing radiative forcing and future periods. Streamflow changes across all catchments however are dominated by variations in projected precipitation. Wetter conditions for the near-future and mid-future horizons under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 would result in higher runoff volumes, particularly during the late wet season (LWS). Conversely, dryer conditions for the far-future period under RCP8.5 would result in considerably lower runoff volumes during the early wet season (EWS) and the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). In consequence, projected seasonal changes on streamflow across all catchments may result in more frequent flooding, droughts, and water supply shortage compared to historical hydrological regimes.
format	Artículo
author	Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés
author_facet	Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés
author_sort	Imbach Bartol, Pablo Andrés
title	Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
title_short	Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
title_full	Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
title_fullStr	Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica
title_sort	hydrological response of tropical catchments to climate change as modeled by the gr2m model: a case study in costa rica
publisher	Sustainability
publishDate	2023
url	https://repositorio.catie.ac.cr/handle/11554/12221
work_keys_str_mv	AT imbachbartolpabloandres hydrologicalresponseoftropicalcatchmentstoclimatechangeasmodeledbythegr2mmodelacasestudyincostarica
_version_	1808117248870580224

Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica

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