Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion

Decision-making for pest management in agriculture is often assisted by sampling plans that guide users in determining the need for an intervention. Even though Tuta absoluta is easily recognizable by most tomato growers and that several sampling plans have been developed, adoption of decision-makin...

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Main Authors:	Rincon, Diego F., Rivera Trujillo, Hugo Fernando, Mojica Ramos, Lorena, Borrero Echeverry, Felipe
Format:	article
Language:	Inglés
Published:	AgriXiv Preprints 2025
Subjects:	Plagas de las plantas - H10 Tomate Gestión de lucha integrada Pérdida económica Monitoreo de plaga Hortalizas y plantas aromáticas http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34030 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37663
Online Access:	https://osf.io/preprints/agrixiv/swxpe_v1 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/40876 https://doi.org/10.31220/osf.io/swxpe

id	RepoAGROSAVIA40876
record_format	dspace
institution	Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria
collection	Repositorio AGROSAVIA
language	Inglés
topic	Plagas de las plantas - H10 Tomate Gestión de lucha integrada Pérdida económica Monitoreo de plaga Hortalizas y plantas aromáticas http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34030 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37663
spellingShingle	Plagas de las plantas - H10 Tomate Gestión de lucha integrada Pérdida económica Monitoreo de plaga Hortalizas y plantas aromáticas http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34030 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37663 Rincon, Diego F. Rivera Trujillo, Hugo Fernando Mojica Ramos, Lorena Borrero Echeverry, Felipe Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
description	Decision-making for pest management in agriculture is often assisted by sampling plans that guide users in determining the need for an intervention. Even though Tuta absoluta is easily recognizable by most tomato growers and that several sampling plans have been developed, adoption of decision-making systems for this pest is still incipient. Two potential obstacles for adoption are market uncertainty and farmer’s risk aversion. Both obstacles could be tackled by adopting sampling plans that allow farmers to plan interventions according to rough estimations of economic thresholds and the intuition and experience gained by farmers. In this study, we evaluated four sampling plans using computer simulations and field trials. We compared the efficiency and the ability of each plan to both estimate the actual mean number of larvae per plant and to classify pest populations according to a predefined economic threshold. We also analyzed the time spent, and plants examined by human subjects applying each plan on a tomato crop with a T. absoluta infestation slightly over a predefined economic threshold. We show that sampling plans that deliver the most precise classifications, are poorest in delivering pest density estimations and vice versa. Our findings are consistent for both human subjects and computer simulations. However, the average number of samples required by sampling plans does not reflect the time spent by humans sampling real plants. Our results show that sampling plans based on counts, as opposed to those based on binary data, can efficiently provide reliable information on a current level of T. absoluta infestation relative to an estimated decision threshold. We suggest that sampling plans that promote the creation of farmer’s memory, such as those based on counts, may be more suitable to both reduce risk aversion and increase adaptability to market uncertainty.
format	article
author	Rincon, Diego F. Rivera Trujillo, Hugo Fernando Mojica Ramos, Lorena Borrero Echeverry, Felipe
author_facet	Rincon, Diego F. Rivera Trujillo, Hugo Fernando Mojica Ramos, Lorena Borrero Echeverry, Felipe
author_sort	Rincon, Diego F.
title	Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
title_short	Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
title_full	Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
title_fullStr	Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
title_full_unstemmed	Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
title_sort	revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion
publisher	AgriXiv Preprints
publishDate	2025
url	https://osf.io/preprints/agrixiv/swxpe_v1 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/40876 https://doi.org/10.31220/osf.io/swxpe
work_keys_str_mv	AT rincondiegof revisitingpestsamplingplansinlightofeconomicuncertaintyandriskaversion AT riveratrujillohugofernando revisitingpestsamplingplansinlightofeconomicuncertaintyandriskaversion AT mojicaramoslorena revisitingpestsamplingplansinlightofeconomicuncertaintyandriskaversion AT borreroecheverryfelipe revisitingpestsamplingplansinlightofeconomicuncertaintyandriskaversion
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spelling	RepoAGROSAVIA408762025-04-11T03:01:14Z Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion Rincon, Diego F. Rivera Trujillo, Hugo Fernando Mojica Ramos, Lorena Borrero Echeverry, Felipe Plagas de las plantas - H10 Tomate Gestión de lucha integrada Pérdida económica Monitoreo de plaga Hortalizas y plantas aromáticas http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34030 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28805 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37663 Decision-making for pest management in agriculture is often assisted by sampling plans that guide users in determining the need for an intervention. Even though Tuta absoluta is easily recognizable by most tomato growers and that several sampling plans have been developed, adoption of decision-making systems for this pest is still incipient. Two potential obstacles for adoption are market uncertainty and farmer’s risk aversion. Both obstacles could be tackled by adopting sampling plans that allow farmers to plan interventions according to rough estimations of economic thresholds and the intuition and experience gained by farmers. In this study, we evaluated four sampling plans using computer simulations and field trials. We compared the efficiency and the ability of each plan to both estimate the actual mean number of larvae per plant and to classify pest populations according to a predefined economic threshold. We also analyzed the time spent, and plants examined by human subjects applying each plan on a tomato crop with a T. absoluta infestation slightly over a predefined economic threshold. We show that sampling plans that deliver the most precise classifications, are poorest in delivering pest density estimations and vice versa. Our findings are consistent for both human subjects and computer simulations. However, the average number of samples required by sampling plans does not reflect the time spent by humans sampling real plants. Our results show that sampling plans based on counts, as opposed to those based on binary data, can efficiently provide reliable information on a current level of T. absoluta infestation relative to an estimated decision threshold. We suggest that sampling plans that promote the creation of farmer’s memory, such as those based on counts, may be more suitable to both reduce risk aversion and increase adaptability to market uncertainty. 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Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion

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