Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference

Snakebite envenoming is a Neglected Tropical Disease affecting mainly deprived populations. Its burden is normally underestimated because patients prefer to seek for traditional medicine. Thus, applying strategies to optimize disease’ management and treatment delivery is difficult. We propose a fram...

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Main Authors:	Bravo Vega, Carlos, Renjifo Ibañez, Camila, Santos Vega, Mauricio, Leon Nuñez, Leonardo Jose, Angarita Sierra, Teddy, Cordovez, Juan Manuel
Format:	article
Language:	Inglés
Published:	Cold Sprimg Harbor Laboratory - CSH 2024
Subjects:	Investigación agropecuaria - A50 Serpiente Envenenamiento Enfermedad Transversal http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6051 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_49879
Online Access:	https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006v1.full http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/40233 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006

id	RepoAGROSAVIA40233
record_format	dspace
institution	Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria
collection	Repositorio AGROSAVIA
language	Inglés
topic	Investigación agropecuaria - A50 Serpiente Envenenamiento Enfermedad Transversal http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6051 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_49879
spellingShingle	Investigación agropecuaria - A50 Serpiente Envenenamiento Enfermedad Transversal http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6051 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_49879 Bravo Vega, Carlos Renjifo Ibañez, Camila Santos Vega, Mauricio Leon Nuñez, Leonardo Jose Angarita Sierra, Teddy Cordovez, Juan Manuel Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
description	Snakebite envenoming is a Neglected Tropical Disease affecting mainly deprived populations. Its burden is normally underestimated because patients prefer to seek for traditional medicine. Thus, applying strategies to optimize disease’ management and treatment delivery is difficult. We propose a framework to estimate snakebite incidence at a fine political scale based on available data, testing it in Colombia. First, we produced snakebite fine-scale risk maps based on the most medically important venomous snake species (Bothrops asper and B. atrox). We validated them with reported data in the country. Then, we proposed a generalized mixed effect model that estimates total incidence based on produced risk maps, poverty indexes, and an accessibility score that reflects the struggle to reach a medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with national snakebite reported data from 2010 to 2019 using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and estimated underreporting based on the total incidence estimation. Our results suggest that 10.3% of total snakebite cases are not reported in Colombia and do not seek medical attention. The Orinoco and Amazonian regions (east of Colombia) share a high snakebite risk with a high underreporting. Our work highlights the importance of multidisciplinary approaches to face snakebite.
format	article
author	Bravo Vega, Carlos Renjifo Ibañez, Camila Santos Vega, Mauricio Leon Nuñez, Leonardo Jose Angarita Sierra, Teddy Cordovez, Juan Manuel
author_facet	Bravo Vega, Carlos Renjifo Ibañez, Camila Santos Vega, Mauricio Leon Nuñez, Leonardo Jose Angarita Sierra, Teddy Cordovez, Juan Manuel
author_sort	Bravo Vega, Carlos
title	Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
title_short	Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
title_full	Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
title_fullStr	Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
title_sort	estimating real snakebite incidence in colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference
publisher	Cold Sprimg Harbor Laboratory - CSH
publishDate	2024
url	https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006v1.full http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/40233 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006
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spelling	RepoAGROSAVIA402332024-10-17T03:01:00Z Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference Bravo Vega, Carlos Renjifo Ibañez, Camila Santos Vega, Mauricio Leon Nuñez, Leonardo Jose Angarita Sierra, Teddy Cordovez, Juan Manuel Investigación agropecuaria - A50 Serpiente Envenenamiento Enfermedad Transversal http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_14209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6051 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_49879 Snakebite envenoming is a Neglected Tropical Disease affecting mainly deprived populations. Its burden is normally underestimated because patients prefer to seek for traditional medicine. Thus, applying strategies to optimize disease’ management and treatment delivery is difficult. We propose a framework to estimate snakebite incidence at a fine political scale based on available data, testing it in Colombia. First, we produced snakebite fine-scale risk maps based on the most medically important venomous snake species (Bothrops asper and B. atrox). We validated them with reported data in the country. Then, we proposed a generalized mixed effect model that estimates total incidence based on produced risk maps, poverty indexes, and an accessibility score that reflects the struggle to reach a medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with national snakebite reported data from 2010 to 2019 using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and estimated underreporting based on the total incidence estimation. Our results suggest that 10.3% of total snakebite cases are not reported in Colombia and do not seek medical attention. The Orinoco and Amazonian regions (east of Colombia) share a high snakebite risk with a high underreporting. Our work highlights the importance of multidisciplinary approaches to face snakebite. 2024-10-16T20:59:44Z 2024-10-16T20:59:44Z 2021-12-10 2021 article Artículo científico http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article https://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006v1.full http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/40233 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.09.472006 reponame:Biblioteca Digital Agropecuaria de Colombia instname:Corporación colombiana de investigación agropecuaria AGROSAVIA eng BioRxiv 1 1 1 34 1.↵Rojas G, Bogarin G, Gutierrez JM. Snakebite mortality in Costa Rica. Toxicon. 1997 Nov;35(11):1639–43.PubMedGoogle Scholar 2.↵Fernandez P, Gutierrez JM. Mortality due to snakebite envenomation in Costa Rica (1993-2006). Toxicon. 2008 Sep;52(3):530–3.PubMedGoogle Scholar 3.↵Chippaux JP. Snakebite envenomation turns again into a neglected tropical disease! 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