An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases
In the study of plant disease epidemics, the state of each individual in the population and their spatial location should be considered when modeling disease spread. We present a model to describe the spread of plant diseases, where the infection of a susceptible individual depends on the transmissi...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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Springer
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/8813 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-024-00604-2 |
| _version_ | 1855492564784775168 |
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| author | Cendoya, Martina Navarro-Quiles, Ana López-Quílez, Antonio Vicent, Antonio Conesa, David |
| author_browse | Cendoya, Martina Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Navarro-Quiles, Ana Vicent, Antonio |
| author_facet | Cendoya, Martina Navarro-Quiles, Ana López-Quílez, Antonio Vicent, Antonio Conesa, David |
| author_sort | Cendoya, Martina |
| collection | ReDivia |
| description | In the study of plant disease epidemics, the state of each individual in the population and their spatial location should be considered when modeling disease spread. We present a model to describe the spread of plant diseases, where the infection of a susceptible individual depends on the transmission rate of infected individuals and the spatial correlation. This latter is introduced through the Matérn correlation function, accounting for spatial dependence based on distance. Almond leaf scorch disease, caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, was used as a case study to test the behavior of the model parameters and the variability due to the characteristics and location of initial disease introduction using a proposed simulation algorithm. The greatest variability in the results depended on the range parameter of the Matérn correlation, i.e., the distance at which two observations can be considered spatially uncorrelated, and the initial introduction. The spatial distribution of individuals also had a strong influence on disease spread, highlighting that areas without trees acted as barriers when their extent was greater than the range parameter. It should be stressed that this individual-based model can be applied to other plant diseases, adapting the parameter values to their particular epidemiological characteristics. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | ReDivia8813 |
| institution | Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Agrarias (IVIA) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ReDivia88132025-04-25T14:49:29Z An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases Cendoya, Martina Navarro-Quiles, Ana López-Quílez, Antonio Vicent, Antonio Conesa, David Individual-based models Matérn correlation Spatial epidemic model H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods A50 Agricultural research Simulation Spatial distribution Plant diseases In the study of plant disease epidemics, the state of each individual in the population and their spatial location should be considered when modeling disease spread. We present a model to describe the spread of plant diseases, where the infection of a susceptible individual depends on the transmission rate of infected individuals and the spatial correlation. This latter is introduced through the Matérn correlation function, accounting for spatial dependence based on distance. Almond leaf scorch disease, caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, was used as a case study to test the behavior of the model parameters and the variability due to the characteristics and location of initial disease introduction using a proposed simulation algorithm. The greatest variability in the results depended on the range parameter of the Matérn correlation, i.e., the distance at which two observations can be considered spatially uncorrelated, and the initial introduction. The spatial distribution of individuals also had a strong influence on disease spread, highlighting that areas without trees acted as barriers when their extent was greater than the range parameter. It should be stressed that this individual-based model can be applied to other plant diseases, adapting the parameter values to their particular epidemiological characteristics. 2024-03-01T12:06:49Z 2024-03-01T12:06:49Z 2024 article publishedVersion Cendoya, M., Navarro-Quíles, A., López-Quílez, A., Vicent, A. & Conesa, D. (2024). An individual-based spatial epidemiological model for the spread of plant diseases. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Published online [24 february 2024]. 1-20. 1537-2693 (Electronic ISSN) 1085-7117 (Print ISSN) https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/8813 10.1007/s13253-024-00604-2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-024-00604-2 en The present work has received funding from grant E-RTA 2017-00004-C06-01 FEDER INIA AEI-MCIN and Organización Interprofesional del Aceite de Oliva Español and Horizon Europe program grant no. 101060593 (BeXyl, “Beyond Xylella, Integrated Management Strategies forMitigating Xylella fastidiosa impact in Europe”). AL and DC are also grateful for grant PID2019-106341GB-I00 FEDER AEI-MCIN. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/E‐RTA2017-00004-C06-01 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101060593/EU/Beyond Xylella, Integrated Management Strategies for Mitigating Xylella fastidiosa impact in Europe/BeXyl Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ openAccess Springer electronico |
| spellingShingle | Individual-based models Matérn correlation Spatial epidemic model H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods A50 Agricultural research Simulation Spatial distribution Plant diseases Cendoya, Martina Navarro-Quiles, Ana López-Quílez, Antonio Vicent, Antonio Conesa, David An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title | An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title_full | An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title_fullStr | An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title_short | An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases |
| title_sort | individual based spatial epidemiological model for the spread of plant diseases |
| topic | Individual-based models Matérn correlation Spatial epidemic model H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods A50 Agricultural research Simulation Spatial distribution Plant diseases |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/8813 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-024-00604-2 |
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