Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression
Circular leaf spot (CLS), caused by Plurivorosphaerella nawae, is a serious disease affecting persimmon (Diospyros kaki) that is characterized by necrotic lesions on leaves, defoliation, and fruit drop. Under Mediterranean conditions, P. nawae forms pseudothecia in the leaf litter in winter, and asc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo |
| Language: | Inglés |
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American Phytopathological Society (APS)
2021
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/7623 https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-08-20-0359-R |
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| author | Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio |
| author_browse | Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio |
| author_facet | Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio |
| author_sort | Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín |
| collection | ReDivia |
| description | Circular leaf spot (CLS), caused by Plurivorosphaerella nawae, is a serious disease affecting persimmon (Diospyros kaki) that is characterized by necrotic lesions on leaves, defoliation, and fruit drop. Under Mediterranean conditions, P. nawae forms pseudothecia in the leaf litter in winter, and ascospores are released in spring, infecting susceptible leaves. Persimmon growers are advised to apply fungicides for CLS control during the period of inoculum availability, which was previously defined based on ascospore counts under the microscope. A model of inoculum availability of P. nawae was developed and evaluated as an alternative to ascospore counts. Leaf litter samples were collected weekly in L’Alcúdia (Spain) from 2010 to 2015. Leaves were soaked and placed in a wind tunnel, and the released ascospores of P. nawae were counted. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression methods were used to model the dynamics of ascospore production in the leaf litter. The selected model included accumulated degree-days (ADDs) and ADDs taking into account the vapor pressure deficit (ADDvpd) as fixed effects and year as random effect. This model had a mean absolute error of 0.042 and a root mean square error of 0.062. The beta regression model was evaluated in four orchards from 2010 to 2015. Higher accuracy was obtained at the beginning and the end of the ascospore production period, which are the events of interest to schedule fungicide sprays for CLS control in Spain. This same modeling framework can be extended to other fungal plant pathogens whose inoculum dynamics are expressed as proportion data. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | ReDivia7623 |
| institution | Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Agrarias (IVIA) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | American Phytopathological Society (APS) |
| publisherStr | American Phytopathological Society (APS) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ReDivia76232025-04-25T14:48:25Z Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio Integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) Mycosphaerella nawae Warning systems H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods U40 Surveying methods decision support systems Ecology Epidemiology Mycology Early warning systems Circular leaf spot (CLS), caused by Plurivorosphaerella nawae, is a serious disease affecting persimmon (Diospyros kaki) that is characterized by necrotic lesions on leaves, defoliation, and fruit drop. Under Mediterranean conditions, P. nawae forms pseudothecia in the leaf litter in winter, and ascospores are released in spring, infecting susceptible leaves. Persimmon growers are advised to apply fungicides for CLS control during the period of inoculum availability, which was previously defined based on ascospore counts under the microscope. A model of inoculum availability of P. nawae was developed and evaluated as an alternative to ascospore counts. Leaf litter samples were collected weekly in L’Alcúdia (Spain) from 2010 to 2015. Leaves were soaked and placed in a wind tunnel, and the released ascospores of P. nawae were counted. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression methods were used to model the dynamics of ascospore production in the leaf litter. The selected model included accumulated degree-days (ADDs) and ADDs taking into account the vapor pressure deficit (ADDvpd) as fixed effects and year as random effect. This model had a mean absolute error of 0.042 and a root mean square error of 0.062. The beta regression model was evaluated in four orchards from 2010 to 2015. Higher accuracy was obtained at the beginning and the end of the ascospore production period, which are the events of interest to schedule fungicide sprays for CLS control in Spain. This same modeling framework can be extended to other fungal plant pathogens whose inoculum dynamics are expressed as proportion data. 2021-09-28T08:53:16Z 2021-09-28T08:53:16Z 2021 article publishedVersion Martínez-Minaya, J., Conesa, D., López-Quílez, A., Mira, J. L. & Vicent, A. (2021). Modelling inoculum availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in persimmon leaf litter with Bayesian beta regression. Phytopathology, 111(7), 1-9. 0031-949X 1943-7684 (e-ISSN) http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/7623 10.1094/PHYTO-08-20-0359-R https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-08-20-0359-R en info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Programa estatal de i+D+i Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad/RTA2013-00004-C03-02//Control integrado de enfermedades fúngicas en frutales mediterráneos: detección masiva temprana, modelos epidemiológicos y optimización de las aplicaciones fungicidas info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Programa Estatal de Generación de Conocimiento y Fortalecimiento Científico y Tecnológico del Sistema de I+D+i/PID2019-106341GB-100/ES/Modelización bayesiana de datos complejos correlados info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Programa estatal de i+D+i Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad/RTA2017-00009-C04-02//Modelización de componentes epidemiológicas de las principales enfermedades fúngicas que afectan a la parte aérea del almendro Research was funded by the Instituto Nacional de Investigaci on y Tecnolog ıa Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci on (MICINN) via research grants RTA2013-00004-C03-02-FEDER and RTA2017- 00009-C04-02-FEDER. D.C. and A.L.Q. thank MICINN for financial support (jointly financed by the European Regional Development Fund) via research grants PID2019-106341GB-I100 and TEC2016-81900-REDT. Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ openAccess American Phytopathological Society (APS) electronico |
| spellingShingle | Integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) Mycosphaerella nawae Warning systems H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods U40 Surveying methods decision support systems Ecology Epidemiology Mycology Early warning systems Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín Conesa, David López-Quílez, Antonio Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title | Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title_full | Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title_short | Modeling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression |
| title_sort | modeling inoculum availability of plurivorosphaerella nawae in persimmon leaf litter with bayesian beta regression |
| topic | Integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) Mycosphaerella nawae Warning systems H20 Plant diseases U10 Mathematical and statistical methods U40 Surveying methods decision support systems Ecology Epidemiology Mycology Early warning systems |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/7623 https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-08-20-0359-R |
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