Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

Alternaria brown spot (ABS) is a serious fungal disease of mandarin in the Mediterranean Basin. Due to the rigorous fruit quality standards, models for ABS should avoid false negatives. Experiments were conducted with susceptible 'Fortune' and 'Nova' inoculated at different temperatures and leaf wet...

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Main Authors: Bassimba, Daniel, Mira, José L., Vicent, Antonio
Format: article
Language:Inglés
Published: 2018
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6022
https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-06-15-0141-R
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author Bassimba, Daniel
Mira, José L.
Vicent, Antonio
author_browse Bassimba, Daniel
Mira, José L.
Vicent, Antonio
author_facet Bassimba, Daniel
Mira, José L.
Vicent, Antonio
author_sort Bassimba, Daniel
collection ReDivia
description Alternaria brown spot (ABS) is a serious fungal disease of mandarin in the Mediterranean Basin. Due to the rigorous fruit quality standards, models for ABS should avoid false negatives. Experiments were conducted with susceptible 'Fortune' and 'Nova' inoculated at different temperatures and leaf wetness durations, including interrupted periods. Effects of temperature and time elapsed after inoculation were also studied. Disease incidence data were fitted to generalized additive models and a generic infection model. Exposure of trap plants in affected orchards was used for model evaluation, including the Alter-Rater and a simple rule system (SRS). The predictive ability of the models was analyzed using the partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the high-sensitivity range between 0.9 and 1. Postinoculation temperature had a significant effect on disease incidence, with maximum symptom expression after 30 h on Fortune and 60 h on Nova. ABS incidence did not increase after a leaf wetness interruption of 1 h on Nova and 2 h on Fortune. All the models evaluated had high falsepositive rates on Fortune. Only the SRS showed a substantial strength of agreement in Nova, with a true-positive rate of 0.93 and false-positive rate of 0.16.
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spelling ReDivia60222025-04-25T14:45:56Z Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis Bassimba, Daniel Mira, José L. Vicent, Antonio Alternaria brown spot (ABS) is a serious fungal disease of mandarin in the Mediterranean Basin. Due to the rigorous fruit quality standards, models for ABS should avoid false negatives. Experiments were conducted with susceptible 'Fortune' and 'Nova' inoculated at different temperatures and leaf wetness durations, including interrupted periods. Effects of temperature and time elapsed after inoculation were also studied. Disease incidence data were fitted to generalized additive models and a generic infection model. Exposure of trap plants in affected orchards was used for model evaluation, including the Alter-Rater and a simple rule system (SRS). The predictive ability of the models was analyzed using the partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the high-sensitivity range between 0.9 and 1. Postinoculation temperature had a significant effect on disease incidence, with maximum symptom expression after 30 h on Fortune and 60 h on Nova. ABS incidence did not increase after a leaf wetness interruption of 1 h on Nova and 2 h on Fortune. All the models evaluated had high falsepositive rates on Fortune. Only the SRS showed a substantial strength of agreement in Nova, with a true-positive rate of 0.93 and false-positive rate of 0.16. 2018-05-09T16:30:56Z 2018-05-09T16:30:56Z 2017 article publishedVersion Bassimba, D.D.M., Mira, J. L., Vicent, A. (2017). Evaluation of models for alternaria brown spot of mandarin under mediterranean conditions by partial receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Phytopathology, 107(6), 721-731. 0031-949X http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6022 10.1094/PHYTO-06-15-0141-R https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-06-15-0141-R en Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ electronico
spellingShingle Bassimba, Daniel
Mira, José L.
Vicent, Antonio
Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title_full Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title_fullStr Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title_short Evaluation of Models for Alternaria Brown Spot of Mandarin Under Mediterranean Conditions by Partial Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis
title_sort evaluation of models for alternaria brown spot of mandarin under mediterranean conditions by partial receiver operating characteristic curve analysis
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/6022
https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO-06-15-0141-R
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