Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina?
As a result of climate change, and in particular rainfall changes, agricultural production is likely to change across the globe. Until now most research has focused on areas which will become unsustainable for agricultural production. However, there are also regions where climate change might actual...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Springer
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3600 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y#citeas https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y |
| _version_ | 1855483268637392896 |
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| author | Asseng, Senthold Travasso, Maria Isabel Ludwig, Fulco Magrin, Graciela Odilia |
| author_browse | Asseng, Senthold Ludwig, Fulco Magrin, Graciela Odilia Travasso, Maria Isabel |
| author_facet | Asseng, Senthold Travasso, Maria Isabel Ludwig, Fulco Magrin, Graciela Odilia |
| author_sort | Asseng, Senthold |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | As a result of climate change, and in particular rainfall changes, agricultural production is likely to change across the globe. Until now most research has focused on areas which will become unsustainable for agricultural production. However, there are also regions where climate change might actually improve conditions for growth. In the western Pampas region of Argentina, average annual rainfall has increased by 100–200 mm over the last 70 years, mainly during summer. Wheat is grown during winter, primarily on stored soil water and the main factor limiting plant production in this area is rainfall. Using the well tested simulation model APSIM-NWheat, we studied whether recent climate change has potentially opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina. Simulation results indicated that the additional rainfall in the Pampas of Argentina has increased the achievable yield (defined as the yield limited by solar radiation, temperature, water and nitrogen supply) of wheat in the currently cropped region, but less than expected based on the large amount of additional rainfall. The higher achievable yield from additional rainfall could potentially allow an expansion of profitable wheat cropping into currently non-cropped areas, where the achievable wheat yield increased in average from 1 t/ha to currently 2 t/ha. However, the poor water-holding capacity of the sandy soils which dominate the region outside the current cropping area limits the systems ability to use most of the increased summer rainfall. Nevertheless, the current higher achievable yield indicates a suitability of the region for cropping, which will slightly decline or remain unchanged depending on summer rainfall storage, with current and future climate change, including projected changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Factors other than just the achievable yield will eventually influence any future development of this region for cropping, including the high sensitivity of the sandy soils to erosion and nutrient leaching, current relatively high land prices, restrictions on clearing for cropping, the distance to the nearest port and current unsuitable cultivars withstanding the high frost risk. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | INTA3600 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateRange | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA36002018-10-16T13:36:31Z Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? Asseng, Senthold Travasso, Maria Isabel Ludwig, Fulco Magrin, Graciela Odilia Trigo Triticum Aestivum Cultivo Cambio Climático Rendimiento de Cultivos Fecha de Siembra Contenido de Agua en el Suelo Datos Meteorológicos Wheat Cultivation Climate Change Crop Yield Sowing Date Soil Water Content Weather Data Argentina Summer Rainfall Soil Water Storage As a result of climate change, and in particular rainfall changes, agricultural production is likely to change across the globe. Until now most research has focused on areas which will become unsustainable for agricultural production. However, there are also regions where climate change might actually improve conditions for growth. In the western Pampas region of Argentina, average annual rainfall has increased by 100–200 mm over the last 70 years, mainly during summer. Wheat is grown during winter, primarily on stored soil water and the main factor limiting plant production in this area is rainfall. Using the well tested simulation model APSIM-NWheat, we studied whether recent climate change has potentially opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina. Simulation results indicated that the additional rainfall in the Pampas of Argentina has increased the achievable yield (defined as the yield limited by solar radiation, temperature, water and nitrogen supply) of wheat in the currently cropped region, but less than expected based on the large amount of additional rainfall. The higher achievable yield from additional rainfall could potentially allow an expansion of profitable wheat cropping into currently non-cropped areas, where the achievable wheat yield increased in average from 1 t/ha to currently 2 t/ha. However, the poor water-holding capacity of the sandy soils which dominate the region outside the current cropping area limits the systems ability to use most of the increased summer rainfall. Nevertheless, the current higher achievable yield indicates a suitability of the region for cropping, which will slightly decline or remain unchanged depending on summer rainfall storage, with current and future climate change, including projected changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Factors other than just the achievable yield will eventually influence any future development of this region for cropping, including the high sensitivity of the sandy soils to erosion and nutrient leaching, current relatively high land prices, restrictions on clearing for cropping, the distance to the nearest port and current unsuitable cultivars withstanding the high frost risk. Instituto de Clima y Agua Fil: Asseng, Senthold. University of Florida. Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department; Estados Unidos. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Plant Industry; Australia Fil: Travasso, Maria Isabel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina Fil: Ludwig, Fulco. Wageningen University. Earth System Science and Climate Change Group; Holanda Fil: Magrin, Graciela Odilia. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina 2018-10-16T13:31:07Z 2018-10-16T13:31:07Z 2013-03 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3600 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y#citeas 0165-0009 1573-1480 (Online) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess application/pdf Argentina (nation) Springer Climatic change 117 (1–2) : 181–196. (March 2013) |
| spellingShingle | Trigo Triticum Aestivum Cultivo Cambio Climático Rendimiento de Cultivos Fecha de Siembra Contenido de Agua en el Suelo Datos Meteorológicos Wheat Cultivation Climate Change Crop Yield Sowing Date Soil Water Content Weather Data Argentina Summer Rainfall Soil Water Storage Asseng, Senthold Travasso, Maria Isabel Ludwig, Fulco Magrin, Graciela Odilia Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title | Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title_full | Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title_fullStr | Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title_short | Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? |
| title_sort | has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in argentina |
| topic | Trigo Triticum Aestivum Cultivo Cambio Climático Rendimiento de Cultivos Fecha de Siembra Contenido de Agua en el Suelo Datos Meteorológicos Wheat Cultivation Climate Change Crop Yield Sowing Date Soil Water Content Weather Data Argentina Summer Rainfall Soil Water Storage |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/3600 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y#citeas https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y |
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