Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts
Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species’ distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrap...
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| Format: | Artículo |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Wiley
2024
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/17923 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1550 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1550 |
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| author | Youngblood, Jacob P. Cease, Arianne J. Talal, Stav Medina, Héctor e. Rojas, Julio E. Trumper, Eduardo Victor Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Harrison, Jon F. Copa Bazán, Fernando |
| author_browse | Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Cease, Arianne J. Copa Bazán, Fernando Harrison, Jon F. Medina, Héctor e. Rojas, Julio E. Talal, Stav Trumper, Eduardo Victor Youngblood, Jacob P. |
| author_facet | Youngblood, Jacob P. Cease, Arianne J. Talal, Stav Medina, Héctor e. Rojas, Julio E. Trumper, Eduardo Victor Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Harrison, Jon F. Copa Bazán, Fernando |
| author_sort | Youngblood, Jacob P. |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species’ distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we explored how incorporating mechanisms altered the projected impacts of climate change for an agricultural pest, the South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata). Because locusts are generalist herbivores surrounded by food, their population growth may be limited by thermal effects on digestion more than food availability. To incorporate this mechanism into a distribution model, we measured the thermal effects on the consumption and
defecation of field-captured locusts and used these data to model energy gain in current and future climates. We then created hybrid models by using outputs of the mechanistic model as predictor variables in correlative models, estimating the potential distribution of gregarious outbreaking locusts based on multiple predictor sets, modeling algorithms, and climate scenarios. Based on the mechanistic model, locusts can assimilate relatively high amounts of energy throughout temperate and tropical South America; however, correlative and hybrid modeling revealed that most tropical areas are unsuitable for locusts. When estimating current distributions, the top-ranked model was always the one fit with mechanistic predictors (i.e., the hybrid model). When projected to future climates, top-ranked hybrid models projected range expansions that were 23%–30% points smaller than those projected by correlative models. Therefore, a combination of the correlative and mechanistic approaches bracketed the potential outcomes of climate change and enhanced confidence where model projections agreed. Because all models projected a poleward range expansionunder climate change, agriculturists should consider enhanced monitoring and the management of locusts near the southern margin of the range. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | INTA17923 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA179232024-05-28T11:16:56Z Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts Youngblood, Jacob P. Cease, Arianne J. Talal, Stav Medina, Héctor e. Rojas, Julio E. Trumper, Eduardo Victor Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Harrison, Jon F. Copa Bazán, Fernando Hybrids Pest Insects Locusts Crops Crop Losses Híbridos Insectos Dañinos Langosta (orthoptera) Schistocerca gregaria Cultivos Pérdidas de la Cosecha Species Distribution Model Thermal Physiology Modelo de Distribución de Especies Fisiología Térmica Langosta gregaria Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species’ distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we explored how incorporating mechanisms altered the projected impacts of climate change for an agricultural pest, the South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata). Because locusts are generalist herbivores surrounded by food, their population growth may be limited by thermal effects on digestion more than food availability. To incorporate this mechanism into a distribution model, we measured the thermal effects on the consumption and defecation of field-captured locusts and used these data to model energy gain in current and future climates. We then created hybrid models by using outputs of the mechanistic model as predictor variables in correlative models, estimating the potential distribution of gregarious outbreaking locusts based on multiple predictor sets, modeling algorithms, and climate scenarios. Based on the mechanistic model, locusts can assimilate relatively high amounts of energy throughout temperate and tropical South America; however, correlative and hybrid modeling revealed that most tropical areas are unsuitable for locusts. When estimating current distributions, the top-ranked model was always the one fit with mechanistic predictors (i.e., the hybrid model). When projected to future climates, top-ranked hybrid models projected range expansions that were 23%–30% points smaller than those projected by correlative models. Therefore, a combination of the correlative and mechanistic approaches bracketed the potential outcomes of climate change and enhanced confidence where model projections agreed. Because all models projected a poleward range expansionunder climate change, agriculturists should consider enhanced monitoring and the management of locusts near the southern margin of the range. EEA Manfredi Fil: Youngblood, Jacob P. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Cease, A.J. Arizona State University. School of Sustainability; Estados Unidos Fil: Talal, Stav. Arizona State University. School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Medina, Héctor. Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria (SENASA); Argentina Fil: Rojas, Julio E. SENAVE. Departamento de Campañas Fitosanitarias. Dirección de Protección Vegetal; Paraguay Fil: Trumper, Eduardo V. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Manfredi; Argentina Fil: Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Harrison, Jon. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Copa Bazán, Fernando. Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno; Bolivia 2024-05-28T10:58:28Z 2024-05-28T10:58:28Z 2022-07-01 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/17923 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1550 1557-7015 (Online) 0012-9615 (Print) https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1550 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf Wiley Ecological Monographs 93 (1) : e1550. (February 2023) |
| spellingShingle | Hybrids Pest Insects Locusts Crops Crop Losses Híbridos Insectos Dañinos Langosta (orthoptera) Schistocerca gregaria Cultivos Pérdidas de la Cosecha Species Distribution Model Thermal Physiology Modelo de Distribución de Especies Fisiología Térmica Langosta gregaria Youngblood, Jacob P. Cease, Arianne J. Talal, Stav Medina, Héctor e. Rojas, Julio E. Trumper, Eduardo Victor Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Harrison, Jon F. Copa Bazán, Fernando Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title | Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title_full | Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title_fullStr | Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title_short | Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| title_sort | climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts |
| topic | Hybrids Pest Insects Locusts Crops Crop Losses Híbridos Insectos Dañinos Langosta (orthoptera) Schistocerca gregaria Cultivos Pérdidas de la Cosecha Species Distribution Model Thermal Physiology Modelo de Distribución de Especies Fisiología Térmica Langosta gregaria |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/17923 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1550 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1550 |
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