Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor?
CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJEC...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/15610 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X23000628 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103657 |
| _version_ | 1855037291300388864 |
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| author | Gatti, Nicolas Cecil, Michael Baylis, Kathy Estes, Lyndon Blekking, Jordan Heckelei, Thomas Vergopolan, Noemi Evans, Tom |
| author_browse | Baylis, Kathy Blekking, Jordan Cecil, Michael Estes, Lyndon Evans, Tom Gatti, Nicolas Heckelei, Thomas Vergopolan, Noemi |
| author_facet | Gatti, Nicolas Cecil, Michael Baylis, Kathy Estes, Lyndon Blekking, Jordan Heckelei, Thomas Vergopolan, Noemi Evans, Tom |
| author_sort | Gatti, Nicolas |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2.
OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption.
METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers' input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha.
SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers. |
| format | info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo |
| id | INTA15610 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA156102023-10-20T10:30:53Z Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? Gatti, Nicolas Cecil, Michael Baylis, Kathy Estes, Lyndon Blekking, Jordan Heckelei, Thomas Vergopolan, Noemi Evans, Tom Yield Gaps Productivity Risk Farm Inputs Weather Diferencias de Rendimiento Productividad Riesgo Insumos Agrícolas Tiempo Meteorológico Agricultural Inputs CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers' input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers. CONTEXTO: El África subsahariana (ASS) tiene el potencial climático y biofísico para aumentar los cultivos que necesita para satisfacer la creciente demanda de alimentos; sin embargo, la productividad agrícola sigue siendo baja. Si bien los rendimientos potenciales del maíz en Zambia son de 9 t por hectárea (t/ha), el agricultor promedio produce sólo 1-2. OBJETIVO: Evaluamos la contribución de las respuestas al riesgo climático a esa brecha descomponiendo la brecha de rendimiento del maíz en Zambia. Si bien sabemos que las semillas y los fertilizantes mejorados pueden aumentar el rendimiento y las ganancias, también pueden aumentar la variación del rendimiento en diferentes condiciones climáticas, lo que reduce su adopción. MÉTODO: Utilizamos un enfoque novedoso que combina modelos de cultivos y análisis estadístico de datos de encuestas para obtener los componentes de la brecha de rendimiento en Zambia impulsados por el costo y el riesgo de los insumos. Utilizamos un modelo de cultivo para simular los efectos marginales a nivel de distrito de la elección de la madurez de las semillas y los fertilizantes sobre la media y la varianza del rendimiento y la ganancia esperados bajo resultados en cualquier condición climática para cada distrito durante los últimos 30 años. Comparamos los niveles de insumos que maximizan el rendimiento esperado con aquellos que maximizan el beneficio esperado y maximizan la compensación esperada entre media y varianza suponiendo aversión al riesgo. Para determinar en qué medida los agricultores eligen insumos para reducir el riesgo, luego cuantificamos las diferencias en el riesgo esperado de los insumos por distrito. RESULTADOS Y CONCLUSIONES: Encontramos que aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la brecha de rendimiento puede explicarse por un comportamiento de reducción de riesgos, aunque con una variación geográfica sustancial. Dado este hallazgo, en las condiciones actuales, esperamos que el rendimiento máximo promedio que los agricultores pueden obtener sin aumentar el riesgo sea de 6,75 t/ha en comparación con un nivel potencial de maximización de ganancias de 8,84 t/ha. SIGNIFICADO: Sólo se espera que la brecha de rendimiento relacionada con el riesgo aumente con los extremos climáticos impulsados por el cambio climático. Promover soluciones únicas para cerrar la brecha de rendimiento podría subestimar el efecto de la mitigación de riesgos en la producción agrícola y al mismo tiempo aumentar los agricultores. Centro de Investigación en Economía y Prospectiva Fil: Gatti, Nicolás. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Centro de Investigación en Economía y Prospectiva (CIEP); Argentina Fil: Gatti, Nicolás. Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA); Argentina Fil: Cecil, Michael. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados Unidos Fil: Baylis, Kathy. University of California Santa Barbara. Department of Geography; Estados Unidos Fil: Estes, Lyndon. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados Unidos Fil: Blekking, Jordan. Indiana University. Bloomington Department of Geography; Estados Unidos Fil: Heckelei, Thomas. Universitaet Bonn. Institute for Food and Resource Economics; Alemania Fil: Vergopolan, Noemi. Princeton University. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program; Estados Unidos Fi: Evans, Tom. University of Arizona. School of Geography, Development & Environment; Estados Unidos 2023-10-20T10:11:46Z 2023-10-20T10:11:46Z 2023-05 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/15610 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X23000628 Gatti, N.; Cecil, M.; Baylis, K.; Estes, L.; Blekking, J.; Heckelei, T.; Vergopolan, N. & Evans, T. (2023). Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? Agricultural Systems, 208, 103657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103657. 0308-521X https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103657 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf Elsevier Agricultural systems 208 : 103657 (May 2023) |
| spellingShingle | Yield Gaps Productivity Risk Farm Inputs Weather Diferencias de Rendimiento Productividad Riesgo Insumos Agrícolas Tiempo Meteorológico Agricultural Inputs Gatti, Nicolas Cecil, Michael Baylis, Kathy Estes, Lyndon Blekking, Jordan Heckelei, Thomas Vergopolan, Noemi Evans, Tom Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title | Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title_full | Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title_fullStr | Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title_short | Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor? |
| title_sort | is closing the agricultural yield gap a risky endeavor |
| topic | Yield Gaps Productivity Risk Farm Inputs Weather Diferencias de Rendimiento Productividad Riesgo Insumos Agrícolas Tiempo Meteorológico Agricultural Inputs |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/15610 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X23000628 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103657 |
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