Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil
Risk analysis of climate change on the spatial distribution of sugarcane orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) is a strategic study for plant protection to minimize future damages. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential risk of the occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under t...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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CDRR Editors
2022
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| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/13567 https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36648 https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v11i15.36648 |
| _version_ | 1855485195677859840 |
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| author | Angelotti, Francislene Morales, Cristina Del Carmen Hamada, Emília Bisonard, Eduardo Matias Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle Rago, Alejandro Mario |
| author_browse | Angelotti, Francislene Bisonard, Eduardo Matias Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle Hamada, Emília Morales, Cristina Del Carmen Rago, Alejandro Mario |
| author_facet | Angelotti, Francislene Morales, Cristina Del Carmen Hamada, Emília Bisonard, Eduardo Matias Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle Rago, Alejandro Mario |
| author_sort | Angelotti, Francislene |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | Risk analysis of climate change on the spatial distribution of sugarcane orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) is a strategic study for plant protection to minimize future damages. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential risk of the occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under the climate change scenarios. A mapping methodology integrated the data of climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by Geographic Information System (GIS). Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. The conditions of climatic favorability for the occurrence of the disease were established by means mathematical logic criteria of GIS, based on knowledge of the authors, who incorporated the implicit effects of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host, and predisposing environmental characteristics. The favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust in the main sugarcane producing regions of Argentina and Brazil varied over the months considered of the cultivation cycle. For Argentina, the future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust from December to February and an increase in April. In Brazil, the climatic favorability decreased from December to March and increased in May. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | INTA13567 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | CDRR Editors |
| publisherStr | CDRR Editors |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA135672022-12-07T19:44:03Z Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil Cenários de risco climático da ferrugem alaranjada para as regiões produtoras de cana-de-açúcar da Argentina e do Brasil Escenarios de riesgo climático de la roya naranja para las regiones productoras de caña de azúcar de Argentina y Brasil Angelotti, Francislene Morales, Cristina Del Carmen Hamada, Emília Bisonard, Eduardo Matias Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle Rago, Alejandro Mario Temperature Climate Change Sugar Cane Temperatura Cambio Climático Caña de Azúcar Argentina Brasil Climatic Favorability Puccinia Kuehnii Favorabilidade Climática Favorabilidad Climática Roya Naranja Risk analysis of climate change on the spatial distribution of sugarcane orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) is a strategic study for plant protection to minimize future damages. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential risk of the occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under the climate change scenarios. A mapping methodology integrated the data of climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by Geographic Information System (GIS). Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. The conditions of climatic favorability for the occurrence of the disease were established by means mathematical logic criteria of GIS, based on knowledge of the authors, who incorporated the implicit effects of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host, and predisposing environmental characteristics. The favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust in the main sugarcane producing regions of Argentina and Brazil varied over the months considered of the cultivation cycle. For Argentina, the future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust from December to February and an increase in April. In Brazil, the climatic favorability decreased from December to March and increased in May. A análise de risco de mudanças climáticas na distribuição espacial da ferrugem alaranjada da cana-de-açúcar (Puccinia kuehnii) é um estudo estratégico para a proteção de plantas a fim de minimizar danos futuros. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o risco potencial da ocorrência de ferrugem alaranjada na Argentina e no Brasil, sob cenários de mudanças climáticas. A metodologia de mapeamento integrou os dados das projeções climáticas e do problema fitossanitário por meio do Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG). Foi considerado o clima normal (1961-1990) e o clima futuro (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100) do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas. As condições de favorabilidade climática para a ocorrência da doença foram estabelecidas por meio de critérios lógicos matemáticos do SIG, baseados no conhecimento dos autores, que incorporaram os efeitos implícitos da interação do patógeno virulento, hospedeiro suscetível e características ambientais predisponentes. A favorabilidade para a ocorrência da ferrugem alaranjada da cana-de-açúcar nas principais regiões produtoras de cana-de-açúcar da Argentina e do Brasil variou ao longo dos meses considerados do ciclo de cultivo. Para a Argentina, os cenários climáticos futuros previram uma redução na favorabilidade para a ocorrência da ferrugem alaranjada da cana-deaçúcar de dezembro a fevereiro e um aumento em abril. No Brasil, a favorabilidade climática diminuiu de dezembro a março e aumentou em maio. El análisis de riesgo del cambio climático sobre la distribución espacial de la roya naranja de la caña de azúcar (Puccinia kuehnii) es un estudio estratégico para la protección vegetal con el fin de minimizar daños futuros. El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar el riesgo potencial de ocurrencia de roya naranja en Argentina y Brasil bajo los escenarios de cambio climático. Una metodología de mapeo integró los datos de las proyecciones climáticas y la problemática fitosanitaria apoyada en el Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG). Se consideró el clima normal (1961-1990) y el clima futuro (2011-2040, 2041-2070 y 2071-2100) del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. Las condiciones de favorabilidad climática para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad se establecieron mediante criterios lógicos matemáticos de SIG, basados en el conocimiento de los autores, quienes incorporaron los efectos implícitos de la interacción del patógeno virulento, huésped susceptible y características ambientales predisponentes. La favorabilidad para la ocurrencia de la roya naranja de la caña de azúcar en las principales regiones productoras de caña de azúcar de Argentina y Brasil varió a lo largo de los meses considerados del ciclo de cultivo. Para Argentina, los escenarios climáticos futuros pronosticaron una reducción en la favorabilidad para la ocurrencia de la roya naranja de la caña de azúcar de diciembre a febrero y un aumento en abril. En Brasil, la favorabilidad climática disminuyó de diciembre a marzo y aumentó en mayo. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias Fil: Angelotti, Francislene. Embrapa Semi-arid; Brasil Fil: Morales, Cristina Del Carmem. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Famaillá; Argentina Fil: Hamada, Emília. Embrapa Environment; Brasil Fil: Bisonard, Eduardo Matias. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Investigación Animal del Chaco Semiárido; Argentina Fil: Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves, Renata. State University of Campinas (Unicamp); Brasil Fil: Rago, Alejandro Mario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias; Argentina 2022-12-07T19:19:36Z 2022-12-07T19:19:36Z 2022-11-22 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/13567 https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36648 2525-3409 https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v11i15.36648 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) application/pdf CDRR Editors Research, Society and Development 11 (15) : e428111536648 (2022) |
| spellingShingle | Temperature Climate Change Sugar Cane Temperatura Cambio Climático Caña de Azúcar Argentina Brasil Climatic Favorability Puccinia Kuehnii Favorabilidade Climática Favorabilidad Climática Roya Naranja Angelotti, Francislene Morales, Cristina Del Carmen Hamada, Emília Bisonard, Eduardo Matias Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle Rago, Alejandro Mario Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title | Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title_full | Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title_short | Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil |
| title_sort | climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane producing regions of argentina and brazil |
| topic | Temperature Climate Change Sugar Cane Temperatura Cambio Climático Caña de Azúcar Argentina Brasil Climatic Favorability Puccinia Kuehnii Favorabilidade Climática Favorabilidad Climática Roya Naranja |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/13567 https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36648 https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v11i15.36648 |
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