Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation?
The Gran Chaco (Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Brazil) has turned into a global deforestation hotspot as a consequence of the agricultural expansion. These land use changes can lead to large socio-ecological conflicts. To reduce adverse effects, common regional planning is needed, which requires...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2022
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/12922 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 |
| _version_ | 1855485066585571328 |
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| author | Mosciaro, Maria Jesus Calamari, Noelia Cecilia Peri, Pablo Luis Montes Flores, Nelson Seghezzo, Lucas Ortiz, Edder Rejalaga, Larissa Barral, Maria Paula Villarino, Sebastián Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique Volante, Jose Norberto |
| author_browse | Barral, Maria Paula Calamari, Noelia Cecilia Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique Montes Flores, Nelson Mosciaro, Maria Jesus Ortiz, Edder Peri, Pablo Luis Rejalaga, Larissa Seghezzo, Lucas Villarino, Sebastián Volante, Jose Norberto |
| author_facet | Mosciaro, Maria Jesus Calamari, Noelia Cecilia Peri, Pablo Luis Montes Flores, Nelson Seghezzo, Lucas Ortiz, Edder Rejalaga, Larissa Barral, Maria Paula Villarino, Sebastián Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique Volante, Jose Norberto |
| author_sort | Mosciaro, Maria Jesus |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | The Gran Chaco (Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Brazil) has turned into a global deforestation hotspot as a consequence of the agricultural expansion. These land use changes can lead to large socio-ecological conflicts. To reduce adverse effects, common regional planning is needed, which requires diagnostic and prospective information on the territorial dynamics. In this context, we analyzed possible land use change threats over time according to four scenarios of agricultural expansion under different degrees of market opening and state regulation (inertial scenario, high transformation scenario, low transformation scenario, and rigorous law enforcement). Additionally, we identified areas of high susceptibility to deforestation by combining the spatial information from each scenario. We found that the magnitude of the land use changes in the Gran Chaco varies across scenarios, with common spatial patterns of change in the areas adjacent to paddocks previously deforested. This work contributed to a better understanding of the land use change patterns and to envisioning the potential consequences of alternative future land use change scenarios in the Gran Chaco. Particularly, deforestation was analyzed to measure the gap between scenarios and the internationally assumed zero-deforestation objectives. We also identified the areas of greater susceptibility to deforestation where protection efforts should be prioritized when designing future land-use policies and forest governance systems. We demonstrated how scenario generation and simulation models can provide deep insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of deforestation hotspot regions for more sustainable land use planning. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | INTA12922 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA129222022-09-21T12:22:22Z Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? Mosciaro, Maria Jesus Calamari, Noelia Cecilia Peri, Pablo Luis Montes Flores, Nelson Seghezzo, Lucas Ortiz, Edder Rejalaga, Larissa Barral, Maria Paula Villarino, Sebastián Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique Volante, Jose Norberto Land Use Change Deforestation Brazil Planning Prospective Studies Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Deforestación Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Planificación Estudios Prospectivos Región Gran Chaco Expansión Agrícola Conflictos Socio-ecológicos Escenarios de Expansión Agrícola Susceptibilidad a la Deforestación Deforestación Cero Agricultural Expansion Socio-ecological Conflicts Scenarios of Agricultural Expansion Susceptibility to Deforestation Zero Deforestation The Gran Chaco (Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Brazil) has turned into a global deforestation hotspot as a consequence of the agricultural expansion. These land use changes can lead to large socio-ecological conflicts. To reduce adverse effects, common regional planning is needed, which requires diagnostic and prospective information on the territorial dynamics. In this context, we analyzed possible land use change threats over time according to four scenarios of agricultural expansion under different degrees of market opening and state regulation (inertial scenario, high transformation scenario, low transformation scenario, and rigorous law enforcement). Additionally, we identified areas of high susceptibility to deforestation by combining the spatial information from each scenario. We found that the magnitude of the land use changes in the Gran Chaco varies across scenarios, with common spatial patterns of change in the areas adjacent to paddocks previously deforested. This work contributed to a better understanding of the land use change patterns and to envisioning the potential consequences of alternative future land use change scenarios in the Gran Chaco. Particularly, deforestation was analyzed to measure the gap between scenarios and the internationally assumed zero-deforestation objectives. We also identified the areas of greater susceptibility to deforestation where protection efforts should be prioritized when designing future land-use policies and forest governance systems. We demonstrated how scenario generation and simulation models can provide deep insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of deforestation hotspot regions for more sustainable land use planning. EEA Salta Fil: Mosciaro, Maria Jesus. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta; Argentina. Fil: Calamari, Noelia Cecilia. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; Argentina. Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina. Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral; Argentina. Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Montes Flores, Nelson. NATIVA. Tarija; Bolivia. Fil: Seghezzo, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía No Convencional (INENCO); Argentina. Fil: Seghezzo, Lucas Universidad Nacional de Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía No Convencional (INENCO); Argentina Fil: Ortiz, Edder. Guyra Paraguay. Viñas Cué; Paraguay. Fil: Rejalaga, Larissa. Universidad Nacional de Asunción. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Carrera de Ingeniería Forestal; Paraguay. Fil: Barral, María Paula. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Fil: Barral, María Paula. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. IPADS; Argentina. Fil: Barral, María Paula. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales; Argentina. Fil: Villarino, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales; Argentina. Fil: Villarino, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Mastrangelo, Matias Enrique. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Grupo de Estudio de Agroecosistemas y Paisajes Rurales; Argentina. Fil: Mastrangelo, Matias Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Volante, José Norberto. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta; Argentina. 2022-09-21T12:10:11Z 2022-09-21T12:10:11Z 2022-09-12 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/12922 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 Mosciaro M.J.; Calamari N.C.; Peri P.L.; Flores Montes N.; Seghezzo L.; Ortiz E.; Rejalaga L.; Barral P.; Villariño S.; Mastrangelo M.; Volante J. (2022) Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation?. Regional Environmental Change 22: 115. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5. 1436-3798 1436-378X https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 eng info:eu-repograntAgreement/INTA/2019-PE-E10-I205-001/2019-PE-E10-I205-001/AR./Alternativas socio-agro-ambientales: prospectiva, observatorios y ordenamiento territorial para la sustentabilidad agroalimentaria. info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess application/pdf Springer Regional Environmental Change 22 : 115 (2022) |
| spellingShingle | Land Use Change Deforestation Brazil Planning Prospective Studies Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Deforestación Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Planificación Estudios Prospectivos Región Gran Chaco Expansión Agrícola Conflictos Socio-ecológicos Escenarios de Expansión Agrícola Susceptibilidad a la Deforestación Deforestación Cero Agricultural Expansion Socio-ecological Conflicts Scenarios of Agricultural Expansion Susceptibility to Deforestation Zero Deforestation Mosciaro, Maria Jesus Calamari, Noelia Cecilia Peri, Pablo Luis Montes Flores, Nelson Seghezzo, Lucas Ortiz, Edder Rejalaga, Larissa Barral, Maria Paula Villarino, Sebastián Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique Volante, Jose Norberto Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title | Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title_full | Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title_fullStr | Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title_short | Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero deforestation? |
| title_sort | future scenarios of land use change in the gran chaco how far is zero deforestation |
| topic | Land Use Change Deforestation Brazil Planning Prospective Studies Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Deforestación Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Planificación Estudios Prospectivos Región Gran Chaco Expansión Agrícola Conflictos Socio-ecológicos Escenarios de Expansión Agrícola Susceptibilidad a la Deforestación Deforestación Cero Agricultural Expansion Socio-ecological Conflicts Scenarios of Agricultural Expansion Susceptibility to Deforestation Zero Deforestation |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/12922 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5 |
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