Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study
In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores f...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/10161 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032114001774 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.040 |
| _version_ | 1855484537122848768 |
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| author | Diogo, Vasco Hilst, Floor van der Eijck, Janske van Verstegen, Judith A. Hilbert, Jorge Antonio Carballo, Stella Maris Volante, Jose Norberto Faaij, André P. C. |
| author_browse | Carballo, Stella Maris Diogo, Vasco Eijck, Janske van Faaij, André P. C. Hilbert, Jorge Antonio Hilst, Floor van der Verstegen, Judith A. Volante, Jose Norberto |
| author_facet | Diogo, Vasco Hilst, Floor van der Eijck, Janske van Verstegen, Judith A. Hilbert, Jorge Antonio Carballo, Stella Maris Volante, Jose Norberto Faaij, André P. C. |
| author_sort | Diogo, Vasco |
| collection | INTA Digital |
| description | In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores future developments in food and feed production to determine land availability and technical potential of biofuel production. The theory-based approach assesses the economic performance of biofuel crops on the surplus land in comparison with other production systems and determines the economic potential of biofuel production. The framework is demonstrated for a case study in Argentina to determine the development of biofuel potential from soy and switchgrass up to 2030. Two scenarios were considered regarding future developments of productivity in agriculture and livestock production. It was found that under a scenario reflecting a continuation of current trends, no surplus land is expected to become available. Nevertheless, the potential for soybean biodiesel is expected to keep increasing up to 103 PJ in 2030, due to the existence of a developed agro-industrial sector jointly producing feed and biodiesel. In case large technological developments occur, 32 Mha could become available in 2030, which would allow for a technical potential of 472 PJ soybean biodiesel and 1445 PJ switchgrass bioethanol. According to the economic assessment, an economic potential of 368 PJ of soy biodiesel and 1.1 EJ switchgrass bioethanol could be attained, at a feedstock production cost of 100–155 US$/ton and 20–45 US$/ton, respectively. The region of southwest Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces appeared to be particularly promising for switchgrass. The ability of jointly assessing future developments in land availability, technical and economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC and spatial distribution of viable locations for growing biofuel crops means that the proposed framework is a step forward in assessing the potential for biofuel production that is both economically viable and sustainably produced. |
| format | Artículo |
| id | INTA10161 |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA -Argentina) |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INTA101612021-09-02T11:45:21Z Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study Diogo, Vasco Hilst, Floor van der Eijck, Janske van Verstegen, Judith A. Hilbert, Jorge Antonio Carballo, Stella Maris Volante, Jose Norberto Faaij, André P. C. Biocarburante Producción Alimentaria Cultivos Energéticos Argentina Panicum Virgatum Soja Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Análisis Económico Biofuels Food Production Fuel Crops Soybeans Land Use Change Economic Analysis Césped de Pradera Biocombustibles Switchgrass In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores future developments in food and feed production to determine land availability and technical potential of biofuel production. The theory-based approach assesses the economic performance of biofuel crops on the surplus land in comparison with other production systems and determines the economic potential of biofuel production. The framework is demonstrated for a case study in Argentina to determine the development of biofuel potential from soy and switchgrass up to 2030. Two scenarios were considered regarding future developments of productivity in agriculture and livestock production. It was found that under a scenario reflecting a continuation of current trends, no surplus land is expected to become available. Nevertheless, the potential for soybean biodiesel is expected to keep increasing up to 103 PJ in 2030, due to the existence of a developed agro-industrial sector jointly producing feed and biodiesel. In case large technological developments occur, 32 Mha could become available in 2030, which would allow for a technical potential of 472 PJ soybean biodiesel and 1445 PJ switchgrass bioethanol. According to the economic assessment, an economic potential of 368 PJ of soy biodiesel and 1.1 EJ switchgrass bioethanol could be attained, at a feedstock production cost of 100–155 US$/ton and 20–45 US$/ton, respectively. The region of southwest Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces appeared to be particularly promising for switchgrass. The ability of jointly assessing future developments in land availability, technical and economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC and spatial distribution of viable locations for growing biofuel crops means that the proposed framework is a step forward in assessing the potential for biofuel production that is both economically viable and sustainably produced. Instituto de Ingeniería Rural Fil: Diogo, Vasco. Utrecht University. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation; Países Bajos Fil: Diogo, Vasco. University Amsterdam. SPINlab/Department of Spatial Economics; Países Bajos Fil: Hilst, Floor van der. Utrecht University. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation; Países Bajos Fil: Eijck, Janske van. Utrecht University. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation; Países Bajos Fil: Verstegen, Judith A. Utrecht University. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation; Países Bajos Fil: Hilbert, Jorge Antonio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Ingeniería Rural; Argentina Fil: Carballo, Stella Maris. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina Fil: Volante, José Norberto. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Salta. Laboratorio de Teledetección y SIG; Argentina Fil: Faaij, André P. C. Utrecht University. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation; Países Bajos 2021-09-02T11:35:42Z 2021-09-02T11:35:42Z 2014-03 info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/10161 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032114001774 1364-0321 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.040 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess application/pdf Argentina .......... (nation) (World, South America) 7006477 Elsevier Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 : 208-224. (2014) |
| spellingShingle | Biocarburante Producción Alimentaria Cultivos Energéticos Argentina Panicum Virgatum Soja Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Análisis Económico Biofuels Food Production Fuel Crops Soybeans Land Use Change Economic Analysis Césped de Pradera Biocombustibles Switchgrass Diogo, Vasco Hilst, Floor van der Eijck, Janske van Verstegen, Judith A. Hilbert, Jorge Antonio Carballo, Stella Maris Volante, Jose Norberto Faaij, André P. C. Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title | Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title_full | Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title_fullStr | Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title_short | Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study |
| title_sort | combining empirical and theory based land use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iluc argentina as a case study |
| topic | Biocarburante Producción Alimentaria Cultivos Energéticos Argentina Panicum Virgatum Soja Cambio de Uso de la Tierra Análisis Económico Biofuels Food Production Fuel Crops Soybeans Land Use Change Economic Analysis Césped de Pradera Biocombustibles Switchgrass |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/10161 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032114001774 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.040 |
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