Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests
Background. Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia wil...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
PeerJ Inc.
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/2732 http://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18799 |
| _version_ | 1855028645831114752 |
|---|---|
| author | Ames Martínez, Fressia N. Capcha Romero, Ivan Guerra, Anthony Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth Galeano, Esteban Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C |
| author_browse | Ames Martínez, Fressia N. Capcha Romero, Ivan Galeano, Esteban Guerra, Anthony Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C |
| author_facet | Ames Martínez, Fressia N. Capcha Romero, Ivan Guerra, Anthony Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth Galeano, Esteban Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C |
| author_sort | Ames Martínez, Fressia N. |
| collection | Repositorio INIA |
| description | Background. Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia will help us to understand the climatic and ecological sensitivity of this species and suggest conservation and restoration strategies. Methods. Using ecological niche modeling with two algorithms (maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest) under the ecological niche conservatism approach, we generated 16,920 models with different combinations of variables and parameters. We identified suitable areas for C. angustifolia trees under present and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100 with SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), tree cover loss, and variables linked to soil and topography. Results. Our results demonstrated 10 environmental variables with high percentage contributions and permutation importance; for example, precipitation seasonality exhibited the highest contribution to the current and future distribution of Cedrela angustifolia. The potential present distribution was estimated as 13,080 km2 with tree cover loss and 16,148.5 km2 without tree cover loss. From 2040 to 2100 the species distribution will decrease (from 22.16% to 36.88% with tree cover loss variation). The results indicated that Bolivia displayed higher habitat suitability than Ecuador, Peru, and Argentina. Finally, we recommend developing conservation management strategies that consider both protected and unprotected areas as well as the impact of land-use changes to improve the persistence of C. angustifolia in the future. |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| id | INIA2732 |
| institution | Institucional Nacional de Innovación Agraria |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| publisherStr | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | INIA27322025-05-05T05:36:05Z Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests Ames Martínez, Fressia N. Capcha Romero, Ivan Guerra, Anthony Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth Galeano, Esteban Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C Climatic refugia Species distribution models Habitat suitability Deforestation Random forest Modeling ecological niche https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.02 Biodiversity, Ecology, Plant Science, Climate Change Biology, Forestry Background. Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia will help us to understand the climatic and ecological sensitivity of this species and suggest conservation and restoration strategies. Methods. Using ecological niche modeling with two algorithms (maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest) under the ecological niche conservatism approach, we generated 16,920 models with different combinations of variables and parameters. We identified suitable areas for C. angustifolia trees under present and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100 with SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), tree cover loss, and variables linked to soil and topography. Results. Our results demonstrated 10 environmental variables with high percentage contributions and permutation importance; for example, precipitation seasonality exhibited the highest contribution to the current and future distribution of Cedrela angustifolia. The potential present distribution was estimated as 13,080 km2 with tree cover loss and 16,148.5 km2 without tree cover loss. From 2040 to 2100 the species distribution will decrease (from 22.16% to 36.88% with tree cover loss variation). The results indicated that Bolivia displayed higher habitat suitability than Ecuador, Peru, and Argentina. Finally, we recommend developing conservation management strategies that consider both protected and unprotected areas as well as the impact of land-use changes to improve the persistence of C. angustifolia in the future. 2025-05-05T05:36:05Z 2025-05-05T05:36:05Z 2025-02-27 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Ames-Martínez, F. N.; Romero, I. C.; Guerra, A.; Guillen, J. G. I.; Quispe-Melgar, H. R.; Galeano, E.; & Rodríguez-Ramírez, E. C. (2025). Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia: evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests. PeerJ, 13, e18799. doi: 10.7717/peerj.18799 2167-8359 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/2732 http://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18799 eng urn:isnn:2167-8349 PeerJ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf application/pdf PeerJ Inc. US Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria Repositorio Institucional - INIA |
| spellingShingle | Climatic refugia Species distribution models Habitat suitability Deforestation Random forest Modeling ecological niche https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.02 Biodiversity, Ecology, Plant Science, Climate Change Biology, Forestry Ames Martínez, Fressia N. Capcha Romero, Ivan Guerra, Anthony Inga Guillen, Janet Gaby Quispe Melgar, Harold Rusbelth Galeano, Esteban Rodríguez Ramírez, Ernesto C Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title | Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title_full | Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title_short | Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests |
| title_sort | climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of cedrela angustifolia evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in andean montane forests |
| topic | Climatic refugia Species distribution models Habitat suitability Deforestation Random forest Modeling ecological niche https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.02 Biodiversity, Ecology, Plant Science, Climate Change Biology, Forestry |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/2732 http://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18799 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT amesmartinezfressian climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT capcharomeroivan climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT guerraanthony climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT ingaguillenjanetgaby climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT quispemelgarharoldrusbelth climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT galeanoesteban climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests AT rodriguezramirezernestoc climatechangeandtreecoverlossaffectthehabitatsuitabilityofcedrelaangustifoliaevaluatingclimatevulnerabilityandconservationinandeanmontaneforests |