Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations
The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry‐season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north‐...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Wiley
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/94078 |
| _version_ | 1855536666393968640 |
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| author | Fernandes, K. Giannini, A. Verchot, Louis V. Baethgen, Walter E. Pinedo Vasquez, M. |
| author_browse | Baethgen, Walter E. Fernandes, K. Giannini, A. Pinedo Vasquez, M. Verchot, Louis V. |
| author_facet | Fernandes, K. Giannini, A. Verchot, Louis V. Baethgen, Walter E. Pinedo Vasquez, M. |
| author_sort | Fernandes, K. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry‐season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north‐south gradient (NSG). Shifts of dry and wet events frequencies are also related to the NSG phase, with a 66% chance of 3+ years of dry events per decade when NSG > 0 and 19% when NSG < 0. The western Amazon and NSG decadal covariability is well reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) historical (HIST) and preindustrial control (PIC) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The HIST and PIC also reproduce the shifts in dry and wet events probabilities, indicating potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase favors above normal frequency of western Amazon dry events in coming decades. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace94078 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace940782025-06-17T08:24:10Z Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations Fernandes, K. Giannini, A. Verchot, Louis V. Baethgen, Walter E. Pinedo Vasquez, M. climate prediction The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry‐season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north‐south gradient (NSG). Shifts of dry and wet events frequencies are also related to the NSG phase, with a 66% chance of 3+ years of dry events per decade when NSG > 0 and 19% when NSG < 0. The western Amazon and NSG decadal covariability is well reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) historical (HIST) and preindustrial control (PIC) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The HIST and PIC also reproduce the shifts in dry and wet events probabilities, indicating potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase favors above normal frequency of western Amazon dry events in coming decades. 2015-08-28 2018-07-03T10:56:54Z 2018-07-03T10:56:54Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/94078 en Open Access Wiley Fernandes, K., Giannini, A., Verchot, L.V., Baethgen, W.E., Pinedo-Vasquez, M.. 2015. Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (16) : 6793-6801. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063911 |
| spellingShingle | climate prediction Fernandes, K. Giannini, A. Verchot, Louis V. Baethgen, Walter E. Pinedo Vasquez, M. Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title | Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title_full | Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title_fullStr | Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title_short | Decadal co-variability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations |
| title_sort | decadal co variability of atlantic ssts and western amazon dry season hydroclimate in observations and cmip5 simulations |
| topic | climate prediction |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/94078 |
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