Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution
The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/92503 |
| _version_ | 1855538257239998464 |
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| author | Imbach, Pablo Chou, Sin Chan Lyra, André Rodrigues, Daniela Rodríguez, Daniel Latinovic, Dragan Siqueira, Gracielle Silva, Adan Garofolo, Lucas Georgiou, Selena |
| author_browse | Chou, Sin Chan Garofolo, Lucas Georgiou, Selena Imbach, Pablo Latinovic, Dragan Lyra, André Rodrigues, Daniela Rodríguez, Daniel Silva, Adan Siqueira, Gracielle |
| author_facet | Imbach, Pablo Chou, Sin Chan Lyra, André Rodrigues, Daniela Rodríguez, Daniel Latinovic, Dragan Siqueira, Gracielle Silva, Adan Garofolo, Lucas Georgiou, Selena |
| author_sort | Imbach, Pablo |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace92503 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateRange | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
| publisherStr | Public Library of Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace925032025-03-13T09:45:18Z Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution Imbach, Pablo Chou, Sin Chan Lyra, André Rodrigues, Daniela Rodríguez, Daniel Latinovic, Dragan Siqueira, Gracielle Silva, Adan Garofolo, Lucas Georgiou, Selena climate change cambio climático rain simulation models modelos de simulación seasons estaciones del año drought The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. 2018 2018-05-10T16:00:15Z 2018-05-10T16:00:15Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/92503 en Open Access Public Library of Science Imbach, Pablo, Chou, Sin Chan, Lyra, André, Rodrigues, Daniela, Rodriguez, Daniel, Latinovic, Dragan, Siqueira, Gracielle, Silva, Adan, Garofolo, Lucas, Georgiou, Selena (2018). Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution. PLoS One, 13(4), e0193570. |
| spellingShingle | climate change cambio climático rain simulation models modelos de simulación seasons estaciones del año drought Imbach, Pablo Chou, Sin Chan Lyra, André Rodrigues, Daniela Rodríguez, Daniel Latinovic, Dragan Siqueira, Gracielle Silva, Adan Garofolo, Lucas Georgiou, Selena Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title | Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title_full | Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title_fullStr | Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title_short | Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution |
| title_sort | future climate change scenarios in central america at high spatial resolution |
| topic | climate change cambio climático rain simulation models modelos de simulación seasons estaciones del año drought |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/92503 |
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