Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop
Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of th...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Royal Society
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89878 |
| _version_ | 1855513401354092544 |
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| author | Godfray, H. Charles J. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Robinson, Sherman |
| author_browse | Godfray, H. Charles J. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Robinson, Sherman |
| author_facet | Godfray, H. Charles J. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Robinson, Sherman |
| author_sort | Godfray, H. Charles J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of ‘stress-testing’ the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.
This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace89878 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Royal Society |
| publisherStr | Royal Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace898782024-10-25T07:52:51Z Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop Godfray, H. Charles J. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Robinson, Sherman climate change agriculture food security resource management models technological changes economic development commodities rice malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant diseases fungal diseases prices commodity markets Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of ‘stress-testing’ the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. 2016-12-05 2017-12-31T15:46:00Z 2017-12-31T15:46:00Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89878 en Open Access Royal Society Godfray HC, Mason-D’Croz D, Robinson S. 2016. Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences 371(1709). |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security resource management models technological changes economic development commodities rice malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant diseases fungal diseases prices commodity markets Godfray, H. Charles J. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Robinson, Sherman Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title | Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title_full | Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title_fullStr | Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title_full_unstemmed | Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title_short | Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| title_sort | food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security resource management models technological changes economic development commodities rice malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant diseases fungal diseases prices commodity markets |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89878 |
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