Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan
A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89872 |
| _version_ | 1855528133602574336 |
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| author | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor Berg, Ernst Franz-Vasdekic, Jennifer Martius, Christopher Lamers, John P.A. |
| author_browse | Berg, Ernst Bobojonov, Ihtiyor Franz-Vasdekic, Jennifer Lamers, John P.A. Martius, Christopher |
| author_facet | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor Berg, Ernst Franz-Vasdekic, Jennifer Martius, Christopher Lamers, John P.A. |
| author_sort | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially explicit stochastic optimization model is used to analyze crop and water allocation decisions under conditions of uncertainty for irrigation water availability in the area for the first time. Results show farmers’ income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2 °C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace89872 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace898722025-02-19T13:42:29Z Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan Bobojonov, Ihtiyor Berg, Ernst Franz-Vasdekic, Jennifer Martius, Christopher Lamers, John P.A. climate change agriculture food security A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially explicit stochastic optimization model is used to analyze crop and water allocation decisions under conditions of uncertainty for irrigation water availability in the area for the first time. Results show farmers’ income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2 °C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency. 2016 2017-12-31T15:45:58Z 2017-12-31T15:45:58Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89872 en Open Access Elsevier Bobojonov I, Berg E, Franz-Vasdeki J, Martius C, Lamers JP. 2016. Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan. Climate Risk Management 13:19-30. |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security Bobojonov, Ihtiyor Berg, Ernst Franz-Vasdekic, Jennifer Martius, Christopher Lamers, John P.A. Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title | Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title_full | Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title_fullStr | Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title_short | Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan |
| title_sort | income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change an application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to western uzbekistan |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89872 |
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