System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands
A comprehensive dynamic simulation model was developed to describe a community-based breeding program for the Menz sheep population of Ethiopia. Selection of male and female animals based on their own and maternal performance was simulated. The breeding goal traits were 6-mo weight, preweaning survi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Oxford University Press
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89157 |
| _version_ | 1855538944818544640 |
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| author | Gebre, K.T. Wurzinger, Maria Gizaw, Solomon Haile, Aynalem Rischkowsky, Barbara A. Getachew, T. Sölkner, Johann |
| author_browse | Gebre, K.T. Getachew, T. Gizaw, Solomon Haile, Aynalem Rischkowsky, Barbara A. Sölkner, Johann Wurzinger, Maria |
| author_facet | Gebre, K.T. Wurzinger, Maria Gizaw, Solomon Haile, Aynalem Rischkowsky, Barbara A. Getachew, T. Sölkner, Johann |
| author_sort | Gebre, K.T. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A comprehensive dynamic simulation model was developed to describe a community-based breeding program for the Menz sheep population of Ethiopia. Selection of male and female animals based on their own and maternal performance was simulated. The breeding goal traits were 6-mo weight, preweaning survival, and fertility rate. The model input data were obtained from the flock book, questionnaires, and references. The simulation model used a mix of deterministic and stochastic procedures to model the complex system. In the baseline scenario, the proportion of selected male and female animals varied between 20 and 30% and between 70 and 80%, respectively. A reasonable annual genetic gain was predicted for the breeding goal traits at the village level. For 6-mo weight and preweaning survival rate, the annual genetic gain varied from 0.213 to 0.214 kg and 0.255 to 0.256%, respectively. For fertility rate, an annual genetic gain of 0.063% was obtained. The predicted rate of inbreeding per year was between 0.094 and 0.116%. Furthermore, a scenario analysis was conducted by varying the proportions of selected animals. Annual genetic gains of 0.230 kg, 0.277%, and 0.069% were obtained for 6-mo weight, preweaning survival rate, and fertility rate, respectively, when the proportion of selected male and female animals decreased by 10%. The annual genetic gains decreased to 0.198 kg, 0.236%, and 0.059%, respectively, when the selection proportion of male and female animals increased by 10%. The lowest rate of inbreeding per year, ranging from 0.065 to 0.079%, was achieved when the selection proportion of selected male and female animals increased. The model is relevant for the step-by-step evaluation of more than one round of selection. It is flexible and usage driven. The model is a valuable tool to design different population structures and can be easily expanded to adopt different breeding strategies. Hence, the system dynamics modeling approach is a potential tool to describe complex breeding programs. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace89157 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| publisherStr | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace891572023-12-08T19:36:04Z System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands Gebre, K.T. Wurzinger, Maria Gizaw, Solomon Haile, Aynalem Rischkowsky, Barbara A. Getachew, T. Sölkner, Johann animal breeding sheep genetics A comprehensive dynamic simulation model was developed to describe a community-based breeding program for the Menz sheep population of Ethiopia. Selection of male and female animals based on their own and maternal performance was simulated. The breeding goal traits were 6-mo weight, preweaning survival, and fertility rate. The model input data were obtained from the flock book, questionnaires, and references. The simulation model used a mix of deterministic and stochastic procedures to model the complex system. In the baseline scenario, the proportion of selected male and female animals varied between 20 and 30% and between 70 and 80%, respectively. A reasonable annual genetic gain was predicted for the breeding goal traits at the village level. For 6-mo weight and preweaning survival rate, the annual genetic gain varied from 0.213 to 0.214 kg and 0.255 to 0.256%, respectively. For fertility rate, an annual genetic gain of 0.063% was obtained. The predicted rate of inbreeding per year was between 0.094 and 0.116%. Furthermore, a scenario analysis was conducted by varying the proportions of selected animals. Annual genetic gains of 0.230 kg, 0.277%, and 0.069% were obtained for 6-mo weight, preweaning survival rate, and fertility rate, respectively, when the proportion of selected male and female animals decreased by 10%. The annual genetic gains decreased to 0.198 kg, 0.236%, and 0.059%, respectively, when the selection proportion of male and female animals increased by 10%. The lowest rate of inbreeding per year, ranging from 0.065 to 0.079%, was achieved when the selection proportion of selected male and female animals increased. The model is relevant for the step-by-step evaluation of more than one round of selection. It is flexible and usage driven. The model is a valuable tool to design different population structures and can be easily expanded to adopt different breeding strategies. Hence, the system dynamics modeling approach is a potential tool to describe complex breeding programs. 2017 2017-10-31T15:30:10Z 2017-10-31T15:30:10Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89157 en Limited Access Oxford University Press Gebre, K.T., Wurzinger, M., Gizaw, S., Haile, A., Rischkowsky, B., Getachew, T. and Sölkner, J. 2017. System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands. Journal of Animal Science 95(6):2367-2378. |
| spellingShingle | animal breeding sheep genetics Gebre, K.T. Wurzinger, Maria Gizaw, Solomon Haile, Aynalem Rischkowsky, Barbara A. Getachew, T. Sölkner, Johann System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title | System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title_full | System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title_fullStr | System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title_full_unstemmed | System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title_short | System dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes: The case of Menz sheep in Ethiopian highlands |
| title_sort | system dynamics modeling in designing breeding schemes the case of menz sheep in ethiopian highlands |
| topic | animal breeding sheep genetics |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/89157 |
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