Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia
Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-b...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2017
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/82973 |
| _version_ | 1855535531416354816 |
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| author | Berger, T. Troost, C. Assfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal Latynskiy, E. Tesfaye, K. Gbegbelegbe, Sika |
| author_browse | Assfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal Berger, T. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Latynskiy, E. Tesfaye, K. Troost, C. |
| author_facet | Berger, T. Troost, C. Assfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal Latynskiy, E. Tesfaye, K. Gbegbelegbe, Sika |
| author_sort | Berger, T. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-based simulation package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace82973 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace829732025-02-19T13:42:45Z Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia Berger, T. Troost, C. Assfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal Latynskiy, E. Tesfaye, K. Gbegbelegbe, Sika climate change prices production data farm-level modeling mixed rainfed agriculture multiagent systems openmpi uncertainty smallholder farmer Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-based simulation package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers. 2017-11 2017-08-01T11:49:48Z 2017-08-01T11:49:48Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/82973 en Limited Access Wiley Berger, T., Troost, C., Assfaw Wossen, T., Latynskiya, E., Tesfaye, K. & Gbegbelegbe, S. (2017). Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics, 1-14. |
| spellingShingle | climate change prices production data farm-level modeling mixed rainfed agriculture multiagent systems openmpi uncertainty smallholder farmer Berger, T. Troost, C. Assfaw Wossen, Tesfamicheal Latynskiy, E. Tesfaye, K. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title | Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title_full | Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title_short | Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia |
| title_sort | can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability and how effective are policy interventions agent based simulation results for ethiopia |
| topic | climate change prices production data farm-level modeling mixed rainfed agriculture multiagent systems openmpi uncertainty smallholder farmer |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/82973 |
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