Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania

Climate change is projected to have widespread impacts on the climate suitability and geographical distribution of agricultural crops. Simulations were conducted on the suitability of common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Tanzania under progressive climate change, taking into account a soil fertil...

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Main Authors: Piikki, Kristin, Winowiecki, Leigh Ann, Vågen, Tor-Gunnar, Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando, Söderström, Mats
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Informa UK Limited 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80451
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author Piikki, Kristin
Winowiecki, Leigh Ann
Vågen, Tor-Gunnar
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Söderström, Mats
author_browse Piikki, Kristin
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Söderström, Mats
Vågen, Tor-Gunnar
Winowiecki, Leigh Ann
author_facet Piikki, Kristin
Winowiecki, Leigh Ann
Vågen, Tor-Gunnar
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Söderström, Mats
author_sort Piikki, Kristin
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Climate change is projected to have widespread impacts on the climate suitability and geographical distribution of agricultural crops. Simulations were conducted on the suitability of common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Tanzania under progressive climate change, taking into account a soil fertility constraint. The results were used to assess the effects of incorporating information on soil fertility, more specifically soil organic carbon (SOC) content, into the niche-based EcoCrop model, which was previously based only on climate data. Extending the model improved the correlation between predicted suitability and production statistics at the regional level. Simulated suitability was highly sensitive to SOC-related model parameters, implying that it is critical to incorporate these parameters in order to improve estimates of crop suitability. Simulations using the best parameterisation identified showed that low SOC is currently more limiting for common bean suitability than climate in 51% of the Tanzanian land area (protected areas excluded). However, future projections suggest that climate will be more limiting for the geographic distribution of common beans than SOC in the near future (2030). Spatial data on predicted SOC levels and other soil properties in future scenario modelling are needed for better identification of suitable areas for common bean production.
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institution CGIAR Consortium
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publishDateRange 2017
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spelling CGSpace804512025-03-13T09:43:57Z Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania Piikki, Kristin Winowiecki, Leigh Ann Vågen, Tor-Gunnar Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Söderström, Mats climate change common beans phaseolus vulgaris carbon soil fertility simulation models modelos de simulación fertilidad del suelo frijol ecology Climate change is projected to have widespread impacts on the climate suitability and geographical distribution of agricultural crops. Simulations were conducted on the suitability of common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Tanzania under progressive climate change, taking into account a soil fertility constraint. The results were used to assess the effects of incorporating information on soil fertility, more specifically soil organic carbon (SOC) content, into the niche-based EcoCrop model, which was previously based only on climate data. Extending the model improved the correlation between predicted suitability and production statistics at the regional level. Simulated suitability was highly sensitive to SOC-related model parameters, implying that it is critical to incorporate these parameters in order to improve estimates of crop suitability. Simulations using the best parameterisation identified showed that low SOC is currently more limiting for common bean suitability than climate in 51% of the Tanzanian land area (protected areas excluded). However, future projections suggest that climate will be more limiting for the geographic distribution of common beans than SOC in the near future (2030). Spatial data on predicted SOC levels and other soil properties in future scenario modelling are needed for better identification of suitable areas for common bean production. 2017-08-08 2017-03-21T21:27:43Z 2017-03-21T21:27:43Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80451 en Open Access Informa UK Limited Piikki, Kristin; Winowiecki, Leigh; Vågen, Tor-Gunnar; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Söderström, Mats. 2017. Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania. South African Journal of Plant and Soil. 34(4): 243-254.
spellingShingle climate change
common beans
phaseolus vulgaris
carbon
soil fertility
simulation models
modelos de simulación
fertilidad del suelo
frijol
ecology
Piikki, Kristin
Winowiecki, Leigh Ann
Vågen, Tor-Gunnar
Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando
Söderström, Mats
Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title_full Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title_fullStr Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title_full_unstemmed Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title_short Improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of Tanzania
title_sort improvement of spatial modelling of crop suitability using a new digital soil map of tanzania
topic climate change
common beans
phaseolus vulgaris
carbon
soil fertility
simulation models
modelos de simulación
fertilidad del suelo
frijol
ecology
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80451
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