The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80056 |
| _version_ | 1855531638993190912 |
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| author | Oliver, Fricko Havlík, Petr Rogelj, Joeri Klimont, Zbigniew Gusti, Mykola Johnson, Nils Kolp, Peter Strubegger, Manfred Valin, Hugo Amann, Markus Ermolieva, Tatiana Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Heyes, Chris Kindermann, Georg Krey, Volker McCollum, David L. Obersteiner, Michael Pachauri, Shonali Rao, Shilpa Schmid, Erwin Schoepp, Wolfgang Riahi, Keywan |
| author_browse | Amann, Markus Ermolieva, Tatiana Forsell, Nicklas Gusti, Mykola Havlík, Petr Herrero, Mario Heyes, Chris Johnson, Nils Kindermann, Georg Klimont, Zbigniew Kolp, Peter Krey, Volker McCollum, David L. Obersteiner, Michael Oliver, Fricko Pachauri, Shonali Rao, Shilpa Riahi, Keywan Rogelj, Joeri Schmid, Erwin Schoepp, Wolfgang Strubegger, Manfred Valin, Hugo |
| author_facet | Oliver, Fricko Havlík, Petr Rogelj, Joeri Klimont, Zbigniew Gusti, Mykola Johnson, Nils Kolp, Peter Strubegger, Manfred Valin, Hugo Amann, Markus Ermolieva, Tatiana Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Heyes, Chris Kindermann, Georg Krey, Volker McCollum, David L. Obersteiner, Michael Pachauri, Shonali Rao, Shilpa Schmid, Erwin Schoepp, Wolfgang Riahi, Keywan |
| author_sort | Oliver, Fricko |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace80056 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace800562024-05-15T05:11:52Z The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century Oliver, Fricko Havlík, Petr Rogelj, Joeri Klimont, Zbigniew Gusti, Mykola Johnson, Nils Kolp, Peter Strubegger, Manfred Valin, Hugo Amann, Markus Ermolieva, Tatiana Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Heyes, Chris Kindermann, Georg Krey, Volker McCollum, David L. Obersteiner, Michael Pachauri, Shonali Rao, Shilpa Schmid, Erwin Schoepp, Wolfgang Riahi, Keywan agriculture food security climate change Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. 2017-01 2017-03-03T19:25:40Z 2017-03-03T19:25:40Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80056 en Open Access Elsevier Fricko O, Havlik P, Rogelj J, Klimont Z, Gusti M, et al. 2017. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42:251–267. |
| spellingShingle | agriculture food security climate change Oliver, Fricko Havlík, Petr Rogelj, Joeri Klimont, Zbigniew Gusti, Mykola Johnson, Nils Kolp, Peter Strubegger, Manfred Valin, Hugo Amann, Markus Ermolieva, Tatiana Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Heyes, Chris Kindermann, Georg Krey, Volker McCollum, David L. Obersteiner, Michael Pachauri, Shonali Rao, Shilpa Schmid, Erwin Schoepp, Wolfgang Riahi, Keywan The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title | The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title_full | The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title_short | The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century |
| title_sort | marker quantification of the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 a middle of the road scenario for the 21st century |
| topic | agriculture food security climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/80056 |
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