Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately trip...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/78484 |
| _version_ | 1855521409143406592 |
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| author | Ittersum, Martin K. van Bussel, Lenny G. J. van Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Wart, Justin van Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven Groot, Hugo de Wiebe, Keith D. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik L. Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. van Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alhassane, Agali Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. |
| author_browse | Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alhassane, Agali Bala, Abdullahi Boogaard, Hendrik L. Bussel, Lenny G. J. van Cassman, Kenneth G. Chikowo, Regis Claessens, Lieven Grassini, Patricio Groot, Hugo de Guilpart, Nicolas Ittersum, Martin K. van Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Loon, Marloes P. van Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Ouattara, Korodjouma Saito, Kazuki Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie Wart, Justin van Wiebe, Keith D. Wolf, Joost Yang, Haishun |
| author_facet | Ittersum, Martin K. van Bussel, Lenny G. J. van Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Wart, Justin van Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven Groot, Hugo de Wiebe, Keith D. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik L. Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. van Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alhassane, Agali Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. |
| author_sort | Ittersum, Martin K. van |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace78484 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace784842025-06-13T14:55:17Z Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Ittersum, Martin K. van Bussel, Lenny G. J. van Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Wart, Justin van Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven Groot, Hugo de Wiebe, Keith D. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik L. Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. van Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alhassane, Agali Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. food security climate change agriculture resource management models technological changes yield gap economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition food supply trade intensification cereal crops commodity markets prices Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. 2016-12-27 2016-12-22T09:41:52Z 2016-12-22T09:41:52Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/78484 en https://www.pnas.org/doi/suppl/10.1073/pnas.1610359113/suppl_file/pnas.201610359si.pdf Open Access National Academy of Sciences van Ittersum MK, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Grassini P, van Wart J, Guilpart N, Claessens L, de Groot H, Wiebe K, Mason-D’Croz D, Yang H, Boogaard H, van Oort PAJ, van Loon MP, Saito K, Adimo O, Adjei-Nsiah S, Agali A, Bala A, Chikowo R, Kaizzi K, Kouressy M, Makoi JHJR, Ouattara K, Tesfaye K, Cassman KG. 2016. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(52):14964–14969. |
| spellingShingle | food security climate change agriculture resource management models technological changes yield gap economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition food supply trade intensification cereal crops commodity markets prices Ittersum, Martin K. van Bussel, Lenny G. J. van Wolf, Joost Grassini, Patricio Wart, Justin van Guilpart, Nicolas Claessens, Lieven Groot, Hugo de Wiebe, Keith D. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Yang, Haishun Boogaard, Hendrik L. Oort, Pepijn A.J. van Loon, Marloes P. van Saito, Kazuki Adimo, Ochieng Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alhassane, Agali Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Kaizzi, Kayuki Kouressy, Mamoutou Makoi, Joachim H.J.R. Ouattara, Korodjouma Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie Cassman, Kenneth G. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title | Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title_full | Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title_fullStr | Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title_short | Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
| title_sort | can sub saharan africa feed itself |
| topic | food security climate change agriculture resource management models technological changes yield gap economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition food supply trade intensification cereal crops commodity markets prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/78484 |
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