| Sumario: | This report describes a one-day workshop that presented new downscaled seasonal climate
forecasts and a brief training program on how to understand, communicate and use new
format with farmer groups. It builds on and extends the previous PICSA training workshops
by (a) shifting from the use of station rainfall data to merged gridded data, and (b) introducing
experimental seasonal forecasts presented as shifted probability distributions. The workshop
began with an introduction to downscaled forecasts in probability-of-exceedance format, and
discussion of plans to make these forecasts available through the Meteo-Rwanda maprooms.
Key concepts were explained, and their equivalent terms in Kinyarwanda were discussed.
Participants were led through an interactive process of eliciting collective memory of rainfall
in recent years, developing a time-series graph based on the past 5 years of rainfall data, and
then sorting the time series into a probability-of-exceedance graph. Instruction and a breakout
group exercise taught participants to interpret probability-of-exceedance graphs. A discussion
about El Niño was used to introduce the concept of a seasonal forecast, build confidence that
there is a physical basis for seasonal forecasting, reinforce the probabilistic nature of seasonal
forecast, and prepare participants to accept the new seasonal forecast format. Showing a
probability-of-exceedance graph for El Niño against the probability-of-exceedance for all
years is the final step to preparing intermediaries, or the farmers they serve, to understand the
new seasonal forecast format. Downscaled forecasts of September-December 2016 total
rainfall showed a weak to moderate probability shift towards dryer conditions. The
presentation of the current forecast was followed by a discussion of the approach that was
presented in the workshop, how the forecast system performs, and how to present the
historical and forecast information to farmers. The workshop ended with discussion of action
plans for using the new forecasts for project communication and planning activities in the four
target districts.
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