Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security
Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic model...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77867 |
| _version_ | 1855526501815943168 |
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| author | Islam, Shahnila Cenacchi, Nicola Sulser, Timothy B. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Hareau, Guy Kleinwechter, Ulrich Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nedumaran, Swamikannu Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_browse | Cenacchi, Nicola Gbegbelegbe, Sika Hareau, Guy Islam, Shahnila Kleinwechter, Ulrich Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nedumaran, Swamikannu Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Sulser, Timothy B. Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_facet | Islam, Shahnila Cenacchi, Nicola Sulser, Timothy B. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Hareau, Guy Kleinwechter, Ulrich Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nedumaran, Swamikannu Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_sort | Islam, Shahnila |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace77867 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace778672025-11-12T05:34:13Z Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security Islam, Shahnila Cenacchi, Nicola Sulser, Timothy B. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Hareau, Guy Kleinwechter, Ulrich Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nedumaran, Swamikannu Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Wiebe, Keith D. yields climate change adaptation maize sorghum biophysical modeling food security economic modeling structural approach agricultural productivity resource management models technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition trade food supply productivity protected areas structural dynamics prices commodity markets Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses. 2016-09 2016-11-25T10:19:32Z 2016-11-25T10:19:32Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77867 en https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996 Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Islam, S., Cenacchi, N., Sulser, T.B., Gbegbelegbe, S., Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., ... & Wiebe, K. (2016). Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security. Global Food Security, 10, 63-70. |
| spellingShingle | yields climate change adaptation maize sorghum biophysical modeling food security economic modeling structural approach agricultural productivity resource management models technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition trade food supply productivity protected areas structural dynamics prices commodity markets Islam, Shahnila Cenacchi, Nicola Sulser, Timothy B. Gbegbelegbe, Sika Hareau, Guy Kleinwechter, Ulrich Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nedumaran, Swamikannu Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Wiebe, Keith D. Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title | Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title_full | Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title_fullStr | Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title_full_unstemmed | Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title_short | Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| title_sort | structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security |
| topic | yields climate change adaptation maize sorghum biophysical modeling food security economic modeling structural approach agricultural productivity resource management models technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition nutrition trade food supply productivity protected areas structural dynamics prices commodity markets |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77867 |
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