Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption
Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2011
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77148 |
| _version_ | 1855514811006189568 |
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| author | Schneider, Uwe Havlík, Petr Schmid, Erwin Valin, Hugo Mosnier, Aline Obersteiner, Michael Böttcher, Hannes Skalsky, Rastislav Balkovič, Juraj Sauer, Timm Fritz, Steffen |
| author_browse | Balkovič, Juraj Böttcher, Hannes Fritz, Steffen Havlík, Petr Mosnier, Aline Obersteiner, Michael Sauer, Timm Schmid, Erwin Schneider, Uwe Skalsky, Rastislav Valin, Hugo |
| author_facet | Schneider, Uwe Havlík, Petr Schmid, Erwin Valin, Hugo Mosnier, Aline Obersteiner, Michael Böttcher, Hannes Skalsky, Rastislav Balkovič, Juraj Sauer, Timm Fritz, Steffen |
| author_sort | Schneider, Uwe |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace77148 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace771482024-07-29T19:30:59Z Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption Schneider, Uwe Havlík, Petr Schmid, Erwin Valin, Hugo Mosnier, Aline Obersteiner, Michael Böttcher, Hannes Skalsky, Rastislav Balkovič, Juraj Sauer, Timm Fritz, Steffen agriculture food security climate change Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities. 2011-02 2016-09-28T10:12:11Z 2016-09-28T10:12:11Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77148 en Open Access Elsevier Schneider UA, Havlik P, Schmid E, Vlin H, Obersteiner M, Böttcher H, Skalský R, Balkovič J, Fritz S. 2011. Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption. Agricultural Systems 104(2):204-215. |
| spellingShingle | agriculture food security climate change Schneider, Uwe Havlík, Petr Schmid, Erwin Valin, Hugo Mosnier, Aline Obersteiner, Michael Böttcher, Hannes Skalsky, Rastislav Balkovič, Juraj Sauer, Timm Fritz, Steffen Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title | Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title_full | Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title_short | Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| title_sort | impacts of population growth economic development and technical change on global food production and consumption |
| topic | agriculture food security climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/77148 |
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