Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/75860 |
| _version_ | 1855532252080898048 |
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| author | Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Vervoort, Joost M. Palazzo, Amanda Islam, Shahnila Lord S Helfgott, Ariella E.S. Havlík, Petr Peou, Rathana Sassen, M. Veeger, Marieke Soesbergen, Arnout van Arnell, A.P. Stuch B Arslan, A. Lipper, Leslie |
| author_browse | Arnell, A.P. Arslan, A. Havlík, Petr Helfgott, Ariella E.S. Islam, Shahnila Lipper, Leslie Lord S Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda Peou, Rathana Sassen, M. Soesbergen, Arnout van Stuch B Veeger, Marieke Vervoort, Joost M. |
| author_facet | Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Vervoort, Joost M. Palazzo, Amanda Islam, Shahnila Lord S Helfgott, Ariella E.S. Havlík, Petr Peou, Rathana Sassen, M. Veeger, Marieke Soesbergen, Arnout van Arnell, A.P. Stuch B Arslan, A. Lipper, Leslie |
| author_sort | Mason-D'Croz, Daniel |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace75860 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace758602025-11-12T04:47:51Z Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Vervoort, Joost M. Palazzo, Amanda Islam, Shahnila Lord S Helfgott, Ariella E.S. Havlík, Petr Peou, Rathana Sassen, M. Veeger, Marieke Soesbergen, Arnout van Arnell, A.P. Stuch B Arslan, A. Lipper, Leslie climate change agriculture food security models scenarios resource management technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition multi-stakeholder processes nutrition trade food supply commodity markets prices Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. 2016-09 2016-06-27T14:34:03Z 2016-06-27T14:34:03Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/75860 en Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Mason-D'Croz D, Vervoort J, Palazzo A, Islam S, Lord S, Helfgott A, Havlík P, Peou R, Sassen M, Veeger M, van Soesbergen A, Arnell AP, Stuch B, Arslan A, Lipper L. 2016. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia. Environmental Modelling & Software 83:255-270. |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security models scenarios resource management technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition multi-stakeholder processes nutrition trade food supply commodity markets prices Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Vervoort, Joost M. Palazzo, Amanda Islam, Shahnila Lord S Helfgott, Ariella E.S. Havlík, Petr Peou, Rathana Sassen, M. Veeger, Marieke Soesbergen, Arnout van Arnell, A.P. Stuch B Arslan, A. Lipper, Leslie Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title | Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title_full | Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title_fullStr | Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title_short | Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia |
| title_sort | multi factor multi state multi model scenarios exploring food and climate futures for southeast asia |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security models scenarios resource management technological changes economic development commodities malnutrition multi-stakeholder processes nutrition trade food supply commodity markets prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/75860 |
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