A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study
Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and retu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2016
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/74285 |
| _version_ | 1855537910187556864 |
|---|---|
| author | Yet, Barbaros Constantinou, Anthony Fenton, Norman Neil, Martin Luedeling, Eike Shepherd, Keith D. |
| author_browse | Constantinou, Anthony Fenton, Norman Luedeling, Eike Neil, Martin Shepherd, Keith D. Yet, Barbaros |
| author_facet | Yet, Barbaros Constantinou, Anthony Fenton, Norman Neil, Martin Luedeling, Eike Shepherd, Keith D. |
| author_sort | Yet, Barbaros |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN framework calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting, taking account of the parameter uncertainty of all continuous variables. The framework can serve as the basis for various project management assessments and is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace74285 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace742852024-08-27T10:37:02Z A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study Yet, Barbaros Constantinou, Anthony Fenton, Norman Neil, Martin Luedeling, Eike Shepherd, Keith D. project management risk analysis cost-benefit analysis bayesian networks Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN framework calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting, taking account of the parameter uncertainty of all continuous variables. The framework can serve as the basis for various project management assessments and is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project. 2016-10 2016-05-23T10:23:33Z 2016-05-23T10:23:33Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/74285 en Limited Access Elsevier Yet, Barbaros;Constantinou, Anthony;Fenton, Norman;Neil, Martin;Luedeling, Eike;Shepherd, Keith.2016.A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study.Elsevier.doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.005 |
| spellingShingle | project management risk analysis cost-benefit analysis bayesian networks Yet, Barbaros Constantinou, Anthony Fenton, Norman Neil, Martin Luedeling, Eike Shepherd, Keith D. A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title | A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title_full | A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title_short | A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| title_sort | bayesian network framework for project cost benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study |
| topic | project management risk analysis cost-benefit analysis bayesian networks |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/74285 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yetbarbaros abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT constantinouanthony abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT fentonnorman abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT neilmartin abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT luedelingeike abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT shepherdkeithd abayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT yetbarbaros bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT constantinouanthony bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT fentonnorman bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT neilmartin bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT luedelingeike bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy AT shepherdkeithd bayesiannetworkframeworkforprojectcostbenefitandriskanalysiswithanagriculturaldevelopmentcasestudy |